Abstract

Taking the system dynamics model as the modeling technology and Tianjin as the research area, the DPSIR analysis framework is used to construct the Tianjin green development system innovation and policy simulation model. The model consists of three subsystems, including the economic population subsystem, the resource energy subsystem, and the environmental assessment subsystem. This study designed three policy scenarios, namely, the extensive-adjustment policy scenario, the economic transition priority policy scenario, and the pollution governance priority policy scenario. Taking the data of Tianjin City in 2018 as a reference sample, the simulation results of the city from 2020 to 2035 were obtained. The simulation results show that in the aspect of economic aggregate growth and urbanization, the economic transformation priority policy scenario is optimal; in terms of energy supply, all three scenarios show a negative effect; in the aspect of air pollution control, the pollution control priority policy scenario is optimal. In terms of carbon emissions and water pollution control, the economic transformation priority policy scenario is the best. According to the simulation results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the reference of Tianjin green development system innovation.

抽象的

以系统动力学模型为建模技术，以天津市为研究领域，采用DPSIR分析框架构建天津市绿色发展系统创新与政策仿真模型。该模型由三个子系统组成，包括经济人口子系统，资源能源子系统和环境评估子系统。本研究设计了三种政策情景，即粗放调整政策情景，经济转型优先政策情景和污染治理优先政策情景。以2018年天津市的数据为参考样本，获得了2020年至2035年天津市的模拟结果。模拟结果表明，在经济总量增长和城市化方面，经济转型优先政策方案是最佳的；在能源供应方面，所有三种情况均显示出负面影响；在空气污染控制方面，污染控制优先政策方案是最优的。在碳排放和水污染控制方面，经济转型优先政策方案是最好的。根据仿真结果，提出相应的政策建议，为天津绿色发展体系创新提供参考。