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Potential distribution of a climate sensitive species, the White-winged Snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis in Europe
Bird Conservation International ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-02 , DOI: 10.1017/s0959270920000027
MATTIA BRAMBILLA , JAIME RESANO-MAYOR , RAPHAËL ARLETTAZ , CHIARA BETTEGA , ANAÏS BINGGELI , GIUSEPPE BOGLIANI , VERONIKA BRAUNISCH , CLAUDIO CELADA , DAN CHAMBERLAIN , JULES CHIFFARD CARRICABURU , MARIA DEL MAR DELGADO , PHILIPPE FONTANILLES , PRIMOŽ KMECL , FRÄNZI KORNER , ROBERT LINDNER , PAOLO PEDRINI , JAKOB PÖHACKER , BORUT RUBINIČ , CHRISTIAN SCHANO , DAVIDE SCRIDEL , ELISEO STRINELLA , NORBERT TEUFELBAUER , MIGUEL DE GABRIEL HERNANDO

SummaryThe White-winged Snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis nivalis is assumed to be highly threatened by climate change, but this high elevation species has been little studied and the current breeding distribution is accurately known only for a minor portion of its range. Here, we provide a detailed and spatially explicit identification of the potentially suitable breeding areas for the Snowfinch. We modelled suitable areas in Europe and compared them with the currently known distribution. We built a distribution model using 14,574 records obtained during the breeding period that integrated climatic, topographic and land-cover variables, working at a 2-km spatial resolution with MaxEnt. The model performed well and was very robust; average annual temperature was the most important occurrence predictor (optimum between c.-3°C and 0°; unsuitable conditions below -10° and above 5°). The current European breeding range estimated by BirdLife International was almost three times greater than that classified as potentially suitable by our model. Discrepancies between our model and the distribution estimated by BirdLife International were particularly evident in eastern Europe, where the species is poorly monitored. Southern populations are likely more isolated and at major risk because of global warming. These differences have important implications for the supposed national responsibility for conservation of the species and highlight the need for new investigations on the species in the eastern part of its European range.

中文翻译:

气候敏感物种的潜在分布,欧洲的白翅雪雀Montifringilla nivalis

摘要白翅雪雀Montifringilla nivalis nivalis被认为受到气候变化的高度威胁,但这种高海拔物种的研究很少,目前的繁殖分布仅在其分布范围的一小部分准确地知道。在这里,我们提供了对雪翅雀潜在合适繁殖区的详细和空间明确的识别。我们对欧洲的合适地区进行了建模,并将它们与目前已知的分布进行了比较。我们使用在繁殖期间获得的 14,574 条记录建立了一个分布模型,该模型整合了气候、地形和土地覆盖变量,使用 MaxEnt 以 2 公里的空间分辨率工作。该模型表现良好且非常稳健;年平均温度是最重要的发生预测因子(最佳在 c.-3°C 和 0° 之间;不适合低于 -10° 和高于 5° 的条件)。BirdLife International 估计的当前欧洲繁殖范围几乎是我们模型分类为潜在合适范围的三倍。我们的模型与 BirdLife International 估计的分布之间的差异在东欧尤为明显,那里的物种监测不足。由于全球变暖,南方人口可能更加孤立并面临重大风险。这些差异对假定的国家保护该物种的责任具有重要意义,并强调需要对其欧洲范围东部的物种进行新的调查。我们的模型与 BirdLife International 估计的分布之间的差异在东欧尤为明显,那里的物种监测不足。由于全球变暖,南方人口可能更加孤立并面临重大风险。这些差异对假定的国家保护该物种的责任具有重要意义,并强调需要对其欧洲范围东部的物种进行新的调查。我们的模型与 BirdLife International 估计的分布之间的差异在东欧尤为明显,那里的物种监测不足。由于全球变暖,南方人口可能更加孤立并面临重大风险。这些差异对假定的国家保护该物种的责任具有重要意义,并强调需要对其欧洲范围东部的物种进行新的调查。
更新日期:2020-03-02
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