Extreme precipitation events, including probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) and 1/100 annual exceedance probability (AEP) values for precipitation (P₁₀₀) and snow accumulation (expressed in snow water equivalent; SWE₁₀₀) were analyzed over Newfoundland to compute the projected changes from 1971–2000 to 2041–2070. PMP and PMSA of various storm durations were simulated based on the moisture maximization of high efficiency storms. Also, P₁₀₀ and SWE₁₀₀ data were calculated based on the frequency analysis of liquid precipitation and snowpack data during each 30-year period. The required meteorological variables, including liquid and solid precipitation, precipitable water content, and snow accumulation, defined over a 50 × 50 km grid, were extracted from an ensemble of six regional climate model simulations provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Projections indicated that while PMP and P₁₀₀ are intensifying in the future period, PMSA and SWE₁₀₀ are declining. This is the first study which quantifies the impact of climate change on extreme-value characteristics of precipitation in Newfoundland. The results of the study can help stakeholders throughout the province to gain a better understanding of the impact of global warming on extreme meteorological events. Such an understanding is prerequisite to build resiliency and understand the uncertainty related to standard probable maximum flood analysis in the region.

极端降水事件包括可能的最大降水量（PMP）和可能的最大积雪量（PMSA），以及降水量（P ₁₀₀）和积雪量（以雪水当量表示； SWE ₁₀₀）的1/100年超标概率（AEP）值。对纽芬兰进行分析，以计算1971–2000年至2041–2070年的预计变化。基于高效风暴的水分最大化，模拟了各种风暴持续时间的PMP和PMSA。另外，P ₁₀₀和SWE ₁₀₀根据每30年内对液体降水和积雪数据的频率分析来计算数据。所需的气象变量包括在50×50 km网格上定义的液体和固体降水，可降水量的水含量和积雪，这些数据是从北美地区气候变化评估计划提供的六组地区气候模型模拟中提取的（ NARCCAP）。预测表明，尽管PMP和P ₁₀₀在未来一段时间内会不断增强，但PMSA和SWE ₁₀₀正在下降。这是第一项量化气候变化对纽芬兰降水极值特征影响的研究。研究结果可以帮助全省的利益相关者更好地了解全球变暖对极端气象事件的影响。这种了解是增强抵御能力和了解与该地区可能的标准最大洪水分析相关的不确定性的前提。