Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a widely used method for the evaluation of safety systems. FTA is based on modeling the behavior of a system by a combination of logic gates (AND, OR) in a logic tree that describes the system. Failure data of low‐level events are used to compute the frequency of the top event of concern. The failure rate data describe the failure of the system components such as pumps, valves, vessels, and instruments. All of the failure rate data are uncertain. This article presents a methodology for the evaluation of uncertainty in the top event of concern using propagation of error and uncertainty analysis methods. The fundamental theory is presented, and a simple fault tree uncertainty analysis is completed to demonstrate the methodology. The uncertainty analysis methodology allows for the identification of the components or assumptions that dominate the risk.

中文翻译：

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错误传播和不确定性分析：在故障树分析中的应用

故障树分析（FTA）是一种广泛使用的安全系统评估方法。FTA 基于在描述系统的逻辑树中通过逻辑门（AND、OR）的组合对系统的行为进行建模。低级别事件的故障数据用于计算关注的顶级事件的频率。故障率数据描述了系统组件（例如泵、阀门、容器和仪器）的故障。所有的故障率数据都是不确定的。本文介绍了一种使用误差传播和不确定性分析方法评估最受关注事件的不确定性的方法。介绍了基本理论，并完成了一个简单的故障树不确定性分析来演示该方法。