Invasive plant species are a significant global problem, with the potential to alter structure and function of ecosystems and cause economic damage to managed landscapes. An effective course of action to reduce the spread of invasive plant species is to identify potential habitat incorporating changing climate scenarios. In this study, we used a suite of species distribution models (SDMs) to project habitat suitability of the eleven most abundant invasive weed species across road networks of Montana, USA, under current (2005) conditions and future (2040) projected climates. We found high agreement between different model predictions for most species. Among the environmental predictors, February minimum temperature, monthly precipitation, solar radiation, and December vapor pressure deficit accounted for the most variation in projecting habitat suitability for most of the invasive weed species. The model projected that habitat suitability along roadsides would expand for seven species ranging from + 5 to + 647% and decline for four species ranging from − 11 to − 88% under high representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectory. When compared with current distribution, the ensemble model projected the highest expansion habitat suitability with six-fold increase for St. John’s Wort (Hypericum perforatum), whereas habitat suitability of leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) was reduced by − 88%. Our study highlights the roadside areas that are currently most invaded by our eleven target species across 55 counties of Montana, and how this will change with climate. We conclude that the projected range shift of invasive weeds challenges the status quo, and requires greater investment in detection and monitoring to prevent expansion. Though our study focuses across road networks of a specific region, we expect our approach will be globally applicable as the predictions reflect fundamental ecological processes.

中文翻译：

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美国蒙大拿州主要道路网络中入侵性杂草物种的未来分布

外来入侵植物物种是一个重大的全球性问题，具有改变生态系统结构和功能并可能对管理景观造成经济损害的潜力。减少入侵性植物物种扩散的有效措施是确定气候变化情况下的潜在栖息地。在这项研究中，我们使用一套物种分布模型（SDM）来预测在当前（2005）条件和未来（2040）预计气候下，美国蒙大纳州道路网中11种最丰富的入侵杂草物种的生境适应性。我们发现大多数物种的不同模型预测之间存在高度一致性。在环境预测指标中，2月的最低温度，每月的降水量，太阳辐射，12月的蒸气压不足是大多数入侵杂草物种预计栖息地适宜性变化的最大原因。该模型预测，在高代表浓度途径（RCP 8.5）温室气体（GHG）轨迹下，沿路边的栖息地适宜性将扩大，范围从+5到+ 647％的7种，减少到从−11至-88％的四种物种。与目前的分布相比，整体模型预测了最高的扩展栖息地适宜性，圣约翰草（5）温室气体（GHG）的轨迹。与目前的分布相比，整体模型预测了最高的扩展栖息地适宜性，圣约翰草（5）温室气体（GHG）的轨迹。与目前的分布相比，整体模型预测了最高的扩展栖息地适宜性，圣约翰草（贯叶连翘（Hypericum perforatum），而绿叶大戟（Euphorbia esula）的生境适应性降低了− 88％。我们的研究重点介绍了蒙大拿州55个县中11种目标物种目前最入侵的路边地区，以及这种情况将随着气候变化而改变。我们得出的结论是，预计侵入性杂草的范围变化将挑战现状，并需要加大对检测和监测的投入，以防止扩展。尽管我们的研究集中在特定地区的道路网络上，但我们希望我们的方法将在全球范围内应用，因为这些预测反映了基本的生态过程。