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National Consumption of Antimalarial Drugs and COVID-19 Deaths Dynamics : an Ecological Study
medRxiv - Pharmacology and Therapeutics Pub Date : 2020-05-28 , DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.18.20063875
Maxime Izoulet

COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease-2019) is an international public health problem with a high rate of severe clinical cases. Several treatments are currently being tested worldwide. This paper focuses on anti-malarial drugs such as chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, which have been currently reviewed by a systematic study as a good potential candidate and that has been reported as the most used treatment by a recent survey of physicians. We compare the dynamics of COVID-19 death rates in countries using anti-malaria drugs as a treatment from the start of the epidemic versus countries that do not, the day of the 3rd death and the following 10 days. We show that the first group have a much slower dynamic in death rates that the second group. This univariate analysis is of course only one additional piece of evidence in the debate regarding the efficiency of anti-malaria drugs, and it is also limited as the two groups certainly have other systemic differences in the way they responded to the pandemic, in the way they report death or in their population that better explain differences in dynamics (systematic differences that may also explain their choice to rely on anti-malaria drugs in the first place). Nevertheless, the difference in dynamics is so striking that we believe that the urgency context commands presenting the univariate analysis before delving into further analysis. In the end, this data might ultimately be either a piece of evidence in favor or anti-malaria drugs or a stepping stone in understanding further what other ecological aspects place a role in the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths.

中文翻译:

全国抗疟药消费量和COVID-19死亡动态:生态研究

COVID-19(Coronavirus Disease-2019)是国际性的公共卫生问题,严重的临床病例很高。目前全球正在测试几种治疗方法。本文重点研究抗疟疾药物,例如氯喹或羟氯喹,目前已通过一项系统研究进行了审查,认为它是潜在的好候选药物,最近的一项医师调查已将其报告为最常用的治疗方法。我们比较了从流行开始到使用抗疟疾药物作为治疗方法的国家与未进行抗疟疾药物治疗的国家(第3次死亡之日和之后的10天)之间COVID-19死亡率的动态变化。我们表明,第一组的死亡率动态比第二组慢得多。当然,这种单变量分析只是关于抗疟疾药物效力的辩论中的另一项证据,而且它的局限性还在于,这两组在应对大流行的方式方面肯定存在其他系统性差异。他们报告死亡或人口情况,可以更好地解释动力学差异(系统差异也可能首先解释了他们选择依赖抗疟疾药物的选择)。尽管如此,动力学方面的差异如此惊人,以至于我们认为紧迫性上下文命令会在进一步研究之前先呈现单变量分析。到底,
更新日期:2020-05-28
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