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Change‐point analysis in financial networks
Stat ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-22 , DOI: 10.1002/sta4.269
Sayantan Banerjee 1 , Kousik Guhathakurta 2
Affiliation  

A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such information flow. It is now an established fact that a stock market crash in one country can have a serious impact on other markets across the globe. It follows that such crashes or critical regimes will affect the network dynamics of the global financial markets. In this paper, we use sequential change‐point detection in dynamic networks to detect changes in the network characteristics of 13 stock markets across the globe. Our method helps us to detect changes in network behaviour across all known stock market crashes during the period of study. In most of the cases, we can detect a change in the network characteristics prior to crash. Our work thus opens the possibility of using this technique to create a warning bell for critical regimes in financial markets.

中文翻译:

金融网络中的变更点分析

全球化的主要影响是跨金融市场的信息流,使其容易受到金融危机的影响。研究集中在网络分析技术上,以了解此类信息流的范围和性质。现在已经确定的事实是,一个国家的股票市场崩溃可能会对全球其他市场产生严重影响。随之而来的是,此类崩溃或关键机制将影响全球金融市场的网络动态。在本文中,我们在动态网络中使用顺序变化点检测来检测全球13个股票市场的网络特征变化。在研究期间,我们的方法可帮助我们检测到所有已知股市崩溃中网络行为的变化。在大多数情况下,我们可以在崩溃之前检测网络特征的变化。因此,我们的工作为使用该技术为金融市场中的关键政权制造警钟开辟了可能性。
更新日期:2020-04-22
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