Abstract Statistical analysis of past maritime accidents may demonstrate the trends for certain contributing factors. However, there is a lack of a technique, which is capable of handling complex nature of maritime accidents by modelling interrelations between contributing factors. Due to the aforementioned complex interrelations and insufficient detail stored in accident databases about these contributors, it was not possible to quantify the importance of each factor in maritime accidents. This situation prevented researchers from considering these factors in risk assessments. Thus, in this research study, a technique for Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCMs) has been demonstrated. MALFCM employs fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to model the relationships of accident contributors by using information directly from an accident database with the ability to combine expert opinion. Hence, the results can be considered more realistic and objective, which overcomes the main disadvantage of FCMs by eliminating or controlling the subjectivity in results. In this paper, FCMs were developed for bulk carriers with the aim of assessing the importance of contributing factors. For instance, in collision accidents in bulk carriers, situational awareness and inadequate communication were identified as the most critical factors, with a normalised importance weighting of 4.88% and 4.87% respectively.

中文翻译：

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使用模糊认知地图 (MALFCM) 进行海上事故学习：散货船事故原因的案例研究

摘要 对过去海上事故的统计分析可能会显示某些促成因素的趋势。然而，缺乏一种技术，能够通过对影响因素之间的相互关系进行建模来处理复杂的海上事故。由于上述复杂的相互关系以及事故数据库中存储的关于这些因素的详细信息不足，无法量化每个因素在海上事故中的重要性。这种情况使研究人员无法在风险评估中考虑这些因素。因此，在这项研究中，已经展示了一种使用模糊认知地图 (MALFCM) 进行海上事故学习的技术。MALFCM 采用模糊认知图 (FCM)，通过直接使用来自事故数据库的信息以及结合专家意见的能力，对事故贡献者的关系进行建模。因此，结果可以被认为更现实和客观，它通过消除或控制结果的主观性来克服 FCM 的主要缺点。在本文中，FCM 是为散货船开发的，目的是评估影响因素的重要性。例如，在散货船碰撞事故中，情境意识和沟通不足被认为是最关键的因素，归一化重要性权重分别为 4.88% 和 4.87%。它通过消除或控制结果的主观性来克服 FCM 的主要缺点。在本文中，FCM 是为散货船开发的，目的是评估影响因素的重要性。例如，在散货船碰撞事故中，情境意识和沟通不足被认为是最关键的因素，归一化重要性权重分别为 4.88% 和 4.87%。它通过消除或控制结果的主观性来克服 FCM 的主要缺点。在本文中，FCM 是为散货船开发的，目的是评估影响因素的重要性。例如，在散货船碰撞事故中，情境意识和沟通不足被认为是最关键的因素，归一化重要性权重分别为 4.88% 和 4.87%。