There are many challenges to coupling the macroscale to the microscale in temporal or spatial contexts. In order to examine effects of an individual movement and spatial control measures on a disease outbreak, we developed a multiscale model and extended the semi-stochastic simulation method by linking individual movements to pathogen’s diffusion, linking the slow dynamics for disease transmission at the population level to the fast dynamics for pathogen shedding/excretion at the individual level. Numerical simulations indicate that during a disease outbreak individuals with the same infection status show the property of clustering and, in particular, individuals’ rapid movements lead to an increase in the average reproduction number $$R_0$$ R 0 , the final size and the peak value of the outbreak. It is interesting that a high level of aggregation the individuals’ movement results in low new infections and a small final size of the infected population. Further, we obtained that either high diffusion rate of the pathogen or frequent environmental clearance lead to a decline in the total number of infected individuals, indicating the need for control measures such as improving air circulation or environmental hygiene. We found that the level of spatial heterogeneity when implementing control greatly affects the control efficacy, and in particular, an uniform isolation strategy leads to low a final size and small peak, compared with local measures, indicating that a large-scale isolation strategy with frequent clearance of the environment is beneficial for disease control.

中文翻译：

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在时空背景下将宏观尺度与微观尺度耦合，以检查空间扩散对疾病传播的影响

在时间或空间环境中将宏观尺度与微观尺度耦合存在许多挑战。为了检查个体运动和空间控制措施对疾病爆发的影响，我们开发了一个多尺度模型，并通过将个体运动与病原体扩散联系起来，扩展了半随机模拟方法，将疾病传播的缓慢动态联系到人口水平上到个体水平上病原体脱落/排泄的快速动态。数值模拟表明，在疾病爆发期间，具有相同感染状态的个体表现出聚集性，特别是个体的快速移动导致平均繁殖数 $$R_0$$ R 0 、最终大小和爆发的峰值。有趣的是，个体移动的高度聚集导致新感染率低和感染人口的最终规模小。此外，我们发现，无论是病原体的高扩散率还是频繁的环境清除都会导致感染个体总数的下降，这表明需要采取改善空气流通或环境卫生等控制措施。我们发现实施控制时的空间异质性水平对控制效果有很大影响，特别是与局部措施相比，统一的隔离策略导致最终大小和峰值较小，表明大规模隔离策略频繁清除环境有利于疾病控制。