In Belgium, most flood events occur in winter as a result of intense precipitation events but also through the abrupt melting of the snowpack that covers the Ardennes summits. These conditions favourable to floods exhibit a decreasing trend over 1959–2010 resulting from the reduction in snow accumulation, although extreme precipitation events show a positive, albeit non‐significant signal. In this study, the evolution of these trends in warmer climates is investigated by using future projections performed with the regional climate model MAR (‘Modèle Atmosphérique Régional’) forced by two global models NorESM1‐M and MIROC5 under the RCP8.5 scenario. These models were selected from the CMIP5 archive after evaluation of their ability to represent the current (1976–2005) mean climate over Europe. By the end of the century, the results show an acceleration of the snow depletion resulting in fewer snowmelt‐associated flood risk days depending on the warming rate from the global models forcing MAR. Regarding the impact of the evolution of extreme precipitation events on hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, no significant change was found although these trends are subject to uncertainties due to model physics and natural variability.

中文翻译：

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利用区域气候模型，到2100年比利时东南部的有利于洪水的水文气候条件的未来演变

在比利时，大多数洪水事件发生在冬季，这是由于强烈降雨事件的结果，也是由于覆盖Ardennes峰顶的积雪的突然融化所致。这些有利于洪水的条件在1959年至2010年期间由于积雪减少而呈下降趋势，尽管极端降雨事件显示出正信号，尽管信号不显着。在这项研究中，通过使用区域气候模型MAR（``ModèleAtmosphériqueRégional''）在RCP8.5情景下由两个全球模型NorESM1-M和MIROC5强制执行，对未来气候变暖趋势的演变进行了研究。在评估了它们代表欧洲目前（1976-2005）平均气候的能力之后，从CMIP5档案库中选择了这些模型。到本世纪末，结果表明，降雪加速，导致与融雪相关的洪水风险天数减少，具体取决于强迫MAR的全球模型的升温速度。关于极端降水事件的演变对有利于洪水的水文气候条件的影响，尽管由于模型物理和自然可变性而使这些趋势受到不确定性的影响，但未发现任何重大变化。