Our study focuses on the projected changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff (used as a proxy for flooding) across the continental United States based on outputs from eight global climate models (GCMs) from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Analyses performed at the regional scale indicate that the GCMs are generally able to reproduce the observed changes in runoff extremes, especially at the seasonal scale, with no single model that outperforms the others across the different seasons and regions. Overall, annual maximum daily runoff is projected to increase during the 21st century, especially in large areas of the southeastern United States and Pacific Northwest, and to decrease in the Rocky Mountains and the northern Great Plains. The largest changes in extremes are projected to be in winter and spring, with a more muted signal for summer and fall.

中文翻译：

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洪水的预计变化：美国大陆的观点

我们的研究重点是根据第六个耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 的八个全球气候模型 (GCM) 的输出结果，美国大陆的年度和季节性最大日径流（用作洪水代理）的预计变化。在区域尺度上进行的分析表明，GCM 通常能够重现观测到的径流极端变化，尤其是在季节尺度上，没有一个模型在不同季节和区域中优于其他模型。总体而言，预计 21 世纪的年最大日径流会增加，尤其是在美国东南部和太平洋西北部的大片地区，而在落基山脉和大平原北部则会减少。极端情况的最大变化预计将出现在冬季和春季，