In this study, an ensemble of statistically downscaled 14 multi‐global climate models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios was employed to implement a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over Pakistan in order to identify the future hotspots cities in terms of changes in temperature and precipitation. The analyses focused on the minimum, maximum and average temperature and precipitation in three time‐slices: 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2,100. Average temperature is projected to increase by 2.6°C under RCP4.5 while 5.1°C under RCP8.5 by the end of this century with the north side of Pakistan (mainly over North Pakistan—NP, Monsoon Region—MR and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—KP) presenting the highest changes in the temperatures. Wetter conditions are expected in the future over Pakistan, mainly over the MR. In general, air temperature and precipitation showed linear positive correlation over Pakistan in both RCP scenarios. Hotspot cities where extreme climate, that is, the hottest, dryer and wetter, exists were also identified. Hyderabad will likely become the hottest city of Pakistan by end century with the highest average temperature reaching 29.9°C under RCP4.5 and 32.0°C under RCP8.5 followed by Jacobabad, Bahawalnagar, and Bahawalpur. Most of the hottest cities are detected in areas on the southern side of Pakistan. On the other hand, the wettest cities, Murree, Balakot and Muzaffarabad, are located in the MR. Dry conditions are likely to be prevalent in Dalbandin followed by Khanpur and Jacobabad under both RCPs. The uncertainties of the projections were also evaluated. For precipitation, for example, there are a large number of outliers indicating the high variability/uncertainties of the projections. These uncertainties are clearer when the probability density functions are analysed for individual sub‐domains in Pakistan.

中文翻译：

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根据CMIP5气候预测确定巴基斯坦易受气候变化影响的热点城市

在本研究中，采用了针对RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景的按统计规模缩减的14种多全球气候模型集合，以对气候变化对巴基斯坦的影响进行全面评估，以便根据变化确定未来的热点城市温度和降水。分析集中在三个时间段上的最低，最高和平均温度和降水：2006-2035、2041-2070和2071-2100。到本世纪末，在巴基斯坦的北侧（主要在巴基斯坦北部-NP，季风区-MR和开伯尔·普赫图赫瓦省-）上，预计RCP4.5下的平均温度将升高2.6°C，RCP8.5下的温度将升高5.1°C。 KP）呈现最高的温度变化。预计未来巴基斯坦（主要是MR）的天气将更加潮湿。一般来说，在两种RCP情景中，气温和降水在巴基斯坦均呈线性正相关。还确定了存在极端气候的热点城市，即最热，最干燥和更湿的地方。到本世纪末，海得拉巴将成为巴基斯坦最热的城市，在RCP4.5下，平均温度最高，达到29.9°C；在RCP8.5下，最高平均温度达到32.0°C，其后是雅各布巴德，巴哈瓦尔纳加尔和巴哈瓦尔普尔。大多数最热的城市都在巴基斯坦南部地区被发现。另一方面，最潮湿的城市穆里，巴拉科特和穆扎法拉巴德位于MR。在这两个区域合作计划下，达尔班丹的干旱条件很普遍，其次是汗布尔和雅各布巴德。还评估了预测的不确定性。例如，对于降水，有大量离群值指示投影的高度可变性/不确定性。当对巴基斯坦各个子域的概率密度函数进行分析时，这些不确定性会更加明显。