Sanitary Emergency Measures (SEM) were implemented in Mexico on March 30th, 2020 requiring the suspension of non-essential activities. This action followed a Healthy Distance Sanitary action on March 23rd, 2020. The aim of both measures was to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 in Mexico by lowering the effective contact rate. Using a modification of the Kermack-McKendrick SEIR model we explore the effect of behavioral changes required to lower community transmission by introducing a time-varying contact rate, and the consequences of disease spread in a population subject to suspension of non-essential activities. Our study shows that there exists a trade-off between the proportion of the population under SEM and the average time an individual is committed to all the behavioral changes needed to achieve an effective social distancing. This trade-off generates an optimum value for the proportion of the population under strict mitigation measures, significantly below 1 in some cases, that minimizes maximum COVID-19 incidence. We study the population-level impact of three key factors: the implementation of behavior change control measures, the time horizon necessary to reduce the effective contact rate and the proportion of people under SEM in combating COVID-19. Our model is fitted to the available data. The initial phase of the epidemic, from February 17th to March 23rd, 2020, is used to estimate the contact rates, infectious periods and mortality rate using both confirmed cases (by date of symptoms initiation), and daily mortality. Data on deaths after March 23rd, 2020 is used to estimate the mortality rate after the mitigation measures are implemented. Our simulations indicate that the most likely dates for maximum incidence are between late May and early June, 2020 under a scenario of high SEM compliance and low SEM abandonment rate.

中文翻译：

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建模墨西哥的行为变化和COVID-19遏制：锁定与合规性之间的权衡。

墨西哥于2020年3月30日实施了卫生应急措施（SEM），要求中止不必要的活动。这项行动是在2020年3月23日采取“健康距离卫生”行动之后。两项措施的目的都是通过降低有效接触率来减少墨西哥社区COVID-19的传播。通过使用Kermack-McKendrick SEIR模型的修改，我们通过引入随时间变化的接触率来探索降低社区传播所需的行为改变的影响，以及疾病的后果在非必要活动被暂停的人群中传播。我们的研究表明，在SEM下的人口比例与个人致力于实现有效的社会疏远所需的所有行为改变的平均时间之间存在一个权衡。在严格的缓解措施下，这种折衷方案可为人口比例提供最佳值，在某些情况下，该值显着低于1，从而最大程度地降低了COVID-19的最高发病率。我们研究了对人口水平的三个关键因素的影响：行为改变控制措施的实施，降低有效接触率所必需的时间跨度以及在SEM中对抗COVID-19的人口比例。我们的模型适合现有数据。该流行病的初始阶段，即2020年2月17日至3月23日，用于确定确诊病例（按症状发生日期）和每日死亡率来估计接触率，传染期和死亡率。2020年3月23日之后的死亡数据用于估计实施缓解措施后的死亡率。