Currently, the electrification of passenger cars is seen as one of the key strategies for heading toward a sustainable transport system. Of special interest are battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which can enable significant emission reductions if electricity used is produced from renewable energy sources. However, mainly due to their high investment costs (retail purchase price) of BEVs, they are currently not economically competitive with conventional fossil‐fueled vehicles without different supporting policy measures. This paper analyzes current costs and future prospects for BEVs compared to conventional petrol cars looking at the total costs of ownership. Furthermore, the future prospects are investigated considering technological learning for BEVs, CO₂ taxes for fuels, and various other policy framework conditions such as rebates for the purchase of the BEVs. The major conclusions are as follows: (i) to improve the economics of BEVs, a very important aspect is the introduction of CO₂‐based fuel taxes; (ii) regarding economics, the second important aspect is the reduction of the investment costs of the BEVs due to technological learning, especially of the battery; (iii) in addition, the introduction of CO₂‐based registration taxes for the purchase of passenger cars makes sense; (iv) subsidies or rebates for the purchase of a BEV maybe a measure successful in the short term and helpful to stimulate technological learning; (v) by far, the highest uncertainty regarding the future prospects of BEVs is how fast technological learning will take place, especially for the battery, and how the future development of batteries will be. © 2020 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中文翻译：

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电池电动汽车的经济学和未来前景

当前，乘用车的电气化被视为迈向可持续交通系统的关键策略之一。电池电动车（BEV）特别令人关注，如果使用的是可再生能源，则可以大大减少排放。但是，主要是由于BEV的投资成本高（零售购买价），如果不采取不同的支持性政策措施，它们目前在经济上就无法与传统的化石燃料汽车竞争。本文从拥有总成本的角度分析了与传统汽油车相比，BEV的当前成本和未来前景。此外，考虑了BEV和CO _2的技术学习，对未来前景进行了研究。燃料税以及其他各种政策框架条件，例如购买BEV的回扣。主要结论如下：（i）为了提高BEV的经济性，一个非常重要的方面是引入基于CO ₂的燃油税；（ii）关于经济学，第二个重要方面是由于技术学习，尤其是电池的使用，降低了电动汽车的投资成本；（iii）另外，引入CO ₂对购买乘用车征收登记税是合理的；（iv）购买BEV的补贴或折扣可能是短期内成功的措施，有助于刺激技术学习；（v）迄今为止，关于BEV的未来前景的最大不确定性是技术学习将如何快速进行，尤其是对于电池而言，以及电池的未来发展将如何。©2020作者。温室气体：化学工业协会和John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.出版的科学和技术。