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The future of landslides’ past—a framework for assessing consecutive landsliding systems
Landslides ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s10346-020-01405-7
Arnaud Temme , Fausto Guzzetti , Jalal Samia , Benjamin B. Mirus

Landslides often happen where they have already occurred in the past. The potential of landslides to reduce or enhance conditions for further landsliding has long been recognized and has often been reported, but the mechanisms and spatial and temporal scales of these processes have previously received little specific attention. Despite a preponderance of qualitative and anecdotal evidence, analysis has been limited. As a result, there is little consensus on the meaning of terms such as landslide repetition, recurrence, and reactivation. This source of confusion is evident when such terms are also used to describe systems where landsliding is prevalent but unrelated to landslide history. Recent findings, partly based on a rare multi-temporal landslide inventory for an area in Italy, show that the impacts of earlier landslides affect a substantial fraction of landslides, that landslides following earlier landslides differ from those that do not, and that accounting for the effect of previous landslides can improve susceptibility assessments. These findings await confirmation in other landslide-prone landscapes but show that consecutive landsliding deserves more attention, which requires consistent terminology. No such terminology is presently available, and we therefore propose it in this manuscript. We use the term “uncorrelated landsliding” to describe situations where landslides are common, but where a correlation with environmental variables such as terrain steepness is not implied. We propose “correlated landsliding” to describe situations where landslides are common and correlations with environmental variables exist, and “path-dependent landsliding” to describe situations where causal relations exist between consecutive landslides, for instance, when landslides occur at the scarp of previous landslides. These are situations where past landslides impact future landslides. Within the path-dependent category, we distinguish three subcategories based on the spatial distance between earlier and later landslides: “reactivation” or “continuation” if essentially the same material recommences or continues to slide, “local activation” if an earlier slide causes changes in a local hillslope that cause a later slide, and “remote activation” if an earlier slide causes changes elsewhere in the landscape that cause a later landslide. We use this proposed set of terms to outline some prominent knowledge gaps and potential research questions.

中文翻译:

滑坡过去的未来——评估连续滑坡系统的框架

山体滑坡经常发生在过去已经发生过的地方。滑坡可能会减少或增强进一步滑坡的条件,这一点早已被认识到并经常被报道,但这些过程的机制和空间和时间尺度以前很少受到特别关注。尽管有大量定性和轶事证据,但分析仍然有限。因此,对于滑坡重复、复发和重新激活等术语的含义几乎没有达成共识。当这些术语也用于描述滑坡普遍但与滑坡历史无关的系统时,这种混淆的根源就很明显了。最近的发现,部分基于意大利一个地区罕见的多时滑坡清单,表明早期滑坡的影响影响了很大一部分滑坡,早期滑坡之后的滑坡与没有发生的滑坡不同,并且考虑先前滑坡的影响可以改善敏感性评估。这些发现有待其他滑坡多发景观的确认,但表明连续滑坡值得更多关注,这需要一致的术语。目前没有这样的术语可用,因此我们在本手稿中提出了它。我们使用术语“不相关的滑坡”来描述滑坡很常见但不暗示与环境变量(如地形陡度)相关的情况。我们提出“相关滑坡”来描述滑坡常见且与环境变量存在相关性的情况,和“路径依赖的滑坡”来描述连续滑坡之间存在因果关系的情况,例如滑坡发生在先前滑坡的陡坡处。在这些情况下,过去的滑坡会影响未来的滑坡。在路径依赖类别中,我们根据较早和较晚滑坡之间的空间距离区分三个子类别:“重新激活”或“继续”,如果基本相同的物质重新开始或继续滑动,“局部激活”,如果较早的滑坡导致变化在导致较晚滑坡的当地山坡中,如果较早的滑坡导致景观中其他地方的变化导致较晚的滑坡,则“远程激活”。我们使用这组提议的术语来概述一些突出的知识差距和潜在的研究问题。
更新日期:2020-05-05
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