In India, since 2001, false smut disease of rice has been observed in severe form among major rice growing states. This disease is difficult to tackle, because pathogens infect the plant during flowering stage, and the symptoms are only visible after emergence of the panicle. Thus, disease forecasting is necessary to predict the chance of disease in a certain set of conditions. We analysed 3 years of aerobiological data including pathogenic spore ( Ustilaginoidea virens ) concentration over the rice canopy in West Bengal, India. The crop growth stages in both rabi (winter or dry) and kharif (rainy) seasons during which rapid development of false smut disease takes place were also recorded. Multiple regression analysis of per cent disease index values was done using age of the plant, pathogen concentration and meteorological factors. In dry season, the false smut disease severity depends on age of the plant as well as pathogenic spore concentration, while in rainy season, the severity depends upon spore concentration, RH and min T . From all the analysed data, it can be predicted that spore concentration is the common factor for false smut disease incidence and severity in rice. If pathogen concentration is increased by one unit, there will be 0.981 unit increased in the expected value of disease severity. With odds ratio value, it can be assumed that with a change in spore concentration by 1 unit, the odds of “Severe” versus “High” or “Moderate” or “Low” or “Absent” combined will be 1.1031 times greater, when other variables held constant. The regression model made from the present study would be beneficial to the farmers for early prediction of false smut disease of rice by estimating the spore concentration over rice canopy in West Bengal, India.

中文翻译：

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印度西孟加拉邦水稻假黑穗病的空气生物学、流行病学和疾病预测

在印度，自 2001 年以来，在主要水稻种植邦中观察到严重的水稻假黑穗病。这种病害很难对付，因为病原体在开花期感染植物，只有在穗出现后才会出现症状。因此，疾病预测对于在特定条件下预测疾病发生的机会是必要的。我们分析了 3 年的空气生物学数据，包括印度西孟加拉邦水稻冠层上的病原孢子 (Ustilaginoidea virens) 浓度。还记录了发生假黑穗病快速发展的狂犬病（冬季或旱季）和哈里夫（雨季）季节的作物生长阶段。使用植物年龄、病原体浓度和气象因素对百分比疾病指数值进行多元回归分析。在旱季，假黑穗病的严重程度取决于植株的年龄和病原孢子浓度，而在雨季，严重程度取决于孢子浓度、相对湿度和最小 T 。从所有分析数据可以预测，孢子浓度是水稻假黑穗病发病率和严重程度的共同因素。如果病原体浓度增加1个单位，疾病严重程度的预期值将增加0.981个单位。使用优势比值，可以假设孢子浓度每变化 1 个单位，“严重”与“高”或“中”或“低”或“不存在”组合的优势将是 1.1031 倍，当其他变量保持不变。