The effects of sea level rise are now beginning to be detected in seagrass ecosystems. The present work deals with how sea level rise translates into changes on seagrass distribution at local scale and how to provide reliable information and tools to predict the vulnerability of shallow coastal ecosystems to the expected effects. To evaluate mid- and long-term changes in the habitat suitability of Zostera noltei a combination of clustering techniques—Self organizing maps and K means—considering RCP and high-end projections was used. The study, developed at the Bay of Santander, provides evidence indicating that sea level rise will highly affect meadows of Zostera noltei. This species will experience an important spatial variability, mainly in deeper areas, where moderate rising levels will substantially reduce the availability of suitable habitats for this species. This process will intensify over time and seagrass meadows are expected to be severely affected in the long term. A rising level of 0.63 m by 2100 will result in a 14.2% reduction in suitable habitats, while a 51% loss will occur with a sea level rise of 2 m. Our results indicate that large areas of seagrass in the Bay of Santander will be lost with future sea level rise, especially in the absence of major changes to sediment dynamics. However, a review of the main feedbacks and self-amplifying mechanisms regulating their adaptation allows us to be confident about Zostera noltei’s capacity to adapt to changing conditions in the near future. In the long term, there are more doubts regarding this ability and possible responses remain highly uncertain.

现在开始在海草生态系统中发现海平面上升的影响。目前的工作涉及海平面上升如何转化为地方尺度的海草分布变化，以及如何提供可靠的信息和工具来预测浅海沿海生态系统对预期影响的脆弱性。为了评估Nosterei（Zostera noltei）生境适应性的中长期变化，使用了结合RCP和高端投影的聚类技术（自组织图和K均值）。这项在桑坦德湾（Bay of Santander）进行的研究提供了证据，表明海平面上升将极大地影响Zostera noltei的草地。该物种将经历重要的空间变异，主要是在较深的地区，那里适度上升的水平将大大减少该物种合适的栖息地的可用性。随着时间的流逝，这一过程将加剧，从长远来看，预计海草草甸将受到严重影响。到2100年，0.63 m的上升水平将导致合适的栖息地减少14.2％，而当海平面上升2 m时，将损失51％。我们的结果表明，桑坦德湾的海草大片面积将随着未来海平面的上升而消失，尤其是在沉积物动力学没有重大变化的情况下。但是，对主要反馈和调节其适应性的自我放大机制进行的审查使我们对Zostera noltei的在不久的将来适应不断变化的条件的能力。从长远来看，对此能力存在更多的疑问，可能的应对措施仍然高度不确定。