Large carnivores are negotiating increasingly developed landscapes, but little is known about how such behavioral plasticity influences their demographic rates and population trends. Some investigators have suggested that the ability of carnivores to behaviorally adapt to human development will enable their persistence, and yet, others have suggested that such landscapes are likely to serve as population sinks or ecological traps. To understand how plasticity in black bear (Ursus americanus) use of residential development influences their population dynamics, we conducted a 6‐yr study near Durango, Colorado, USA. Using space‐use data on individual bears, we examined the influence of use of residential development on annual measures of bear body fat, cub productivity, cub survival, and adult female survival, after accounting for variation in natural food availability and individual attributes (e.g., age). We then used our field‐based vital rate estimates to parameterize a matrix model that simulated asymptotic population growth for bears using residential development to different degrees. We found that bear use of residential development was highly variable within and across years, with bears increasing their foraging within development when natural foods were scarce. Increased bear use of development was associated with increased body fat and cub productivity, but reduced cub and adult survival. When these effects were simultaneously incorporated into a matrix model, we found that the population was projected to decline as bear use of development increased, given that the costs of reduced survival outweighed the benefits of enhanced productivity. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding of how black bear use of residential development exerts opposing effects on different bear fitness traits and a negative effect on population growth, with the magnitude of those effects mediated by variation in environmental conditions. They also highlight the importance of monitoring bear population dynamics, particularly as shifts in bear behavior are likely to drive increases in human–bear conflicts and the perception of growing bear populations. Finally, our work emphasizes the need to consider the demographic viability of large carnivore populations when promoting the coexistence of people and carnivores on shared landscapes.

中文翻译：

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与大型食肉动物对住宅开发的使用有关的个人和人口适应性后果

大型食肉动物正在商讨日渐发达的景观，但人们对这种行为可塑性如何影响其人口统计学和人口趋势知之甚少。一些研究者认为，食肉动物在行为上适应人类发展的能力将使其持久存在，而另一些研究者则认为，这种景观很可能是人口汇或生态陷阱。理解黑熊（美洲仓鼠）的可塑性）住宅开发的使用会影响其人口动态，我们在美国科罗拉多州杜兰戈附近进行了为期6年的研究。使用自然熊的空间使用数据，我们在考虑了天然食物的可获得性和个体属性（例如， ，年龄）。然后，我们使用基于现场的生命率估计值对矩阵模型进行参数化，该模型使用不同程度的住宅开发来模拟熊的渐近种群增长。我们发现，熊在住宅开发中的用途在几年内甚至几年内变化很大，而在缺乏天然食物的情况下，熊会在开发中增加觅食。熊使用发育的增加与体脂和幼崽生产力的增加相关，但幼崽和成年存活率下降。当将这些影响同时纳入矩阵模型时，我们发现，随着熊的开发利用增加，种群的减少预计会减少，因为减少生存的成本超过了提高生产力的好处。我们的结果提供了对黑熊如何利用住宅发展对不同的熊的适应性特征产生相反影响而对种群增长产生负面影响的机制的理解，这些影响的程度是由环境条件的变化介导的。他们还强调了监测熊种群动态的重要性，尤其是随着熊行为的改变有可能推动人与熊之间的冲突以及对熊种群不断增长的认识的增加。最后，我们的工作强调在促进人类和食肉动物在共享景观上的共存时，必须考虑大型食肉动物种群的人口可行性。