The response of snowpack to a +2°C global warming relative to the present climate was estimated in Hokkaido, Japan, using a physical snowpack model driven by dynamically downscaled (DDS) data, after model evaluation. The evaluation revealed that the snowpack model successfully reproduced the height of snow cover (HS), snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days (SCDs), but had a moderate bias in the thickness ratios of melt form (MF) and hoar category (HC). The DDS-forced simulation predicted that the seasonal-maximum HS and SWE would decrease by 30–40% in the southwestern and eastern parts of Hokkaido due to a large decrease in snowfall during the accumulation period, and that the HS and SWE in the north would decrease, albeit not significantly due to uncertain atmospheric forcing. The number of SCDs in Hokkaido was predicted to decline by ~30 d. Additionally, ~50% of snowpack thickness during a season would be MF in most areas, whereas HC would be <50% all over Hokkaido.

中文翻译：

---

日本北海道积雪对+2°C全球变暖的响应

在模型评估后，使用由动态降尺度 (DDS) 数据驱动的物理积雪模型，在日本北海道估计了积雪对相对于当前气候的 +2°C 全球变暖的响应。评估表明，积雪模型成功地再现了积雪高度（HS）、雪水当量（SWE）和积雪天数（SCDs），但在融形（MF）和白化厚度比上存在适度偏差。类别（HC）。DDS 强制模拟预测，由于积雪期降雪量大，北海道西南部和东部地区的季节最大值 HS 和 SWE 将减少 30-40%，而北部的 HS 和 SWE会减少，尽管由于不确定的大气强迫而不会显着减少。预计北海道的 SCD 数量将减少约 30 天。此外，在大多数地区，一个季节约 50% 的积雪厚度将是 MF，而整个北海道的 HC 将小于 50%。