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Understanding the dynamic nature of risk in climate change assessments-A new starting point for discussion
Atmospheric Science Letters ( IF 3 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.1002/asl.958
David Viner 1 , Marie Ekstrom 2 , Margot Hulbert 3 , Nicolle K. Warner 4 , Anita Wreford 5 , Zinta Zommers 6
Affiliation  

This article sets out the current conceptualisation and description of risk used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It identifies limitations in capacity to reflect the dynamic nature of risk components, and the need for standardisation and refinement of methods used to quantify evolving risk patterns. Recent studies highlight the changing nature of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, the three components of risk, and demonstrate the need for coordinated guidance on strategies and methods that better reflect the dynamic nature of the components themselves, and their interaction. Here, we discuss limitations of a static risk framework and call for a way forward that will allow for a better understanding and description of risk. Such advancements in conceptualisation are needed to bring closer the understanding and description of risk in theory with how risk is quantified and communicated in practice. To stimulate discussion, this article proposes a formulation of risk that clearly recognises the temporally evolving nature of risk components.

中文翻译:

理解气候变化评估中风险的动态性质——讨论的新起点

本文阐述了政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 当前使用的风险概念化和描述。它确定了反映风险成分动态性质的能力的局限性,以及用于量化不断变化的风险模式的方法的标准化和改进的必要性。最近的研究强调了危害、暴露和脆弱性、风险的三个组成部分的不断变化的性质,并表明需要对战略和方法进行协调指导,以更好地反映组成部分本身的动态性质及其相互作用。在这里,我们讨论静态风险框架的局限性,并呼吁采取一种可以更好地理解和描述风险的方法。需要在概念化方面取得这种进步,以便在理论上对风险的理解和描述以及在实践中如何量化和交流风险。为了激发讨论,本文提出了一种风险公式,该公式清楚地认识到风险成分随时间演变的性质。
更新日期:2020-04-01
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