Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

中文翻译：

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利用古环境建模和遗传数据来预测种内遗传结构。

复杂景观中基因流动的空间显式模拟可以帮助预测人口对全球和人类学变化的反应。通过模拟过去的气候变化如何塑造种内遗传变异，可以对模型进行验证，从而预测模型将用于预测未来的变化。我们审查提供人口遗传结构推断的模拟模型。现有的模拟模型通常将复杂的人口统计和遗传过程整合在一起，但较少关注景观动态。与以前的方法相结合的方法，该方法整合了详细的人口统计和遗传过程，仅次于景观动态，我们提出了一种基于简约生物机制的模型，该机制结合了栖息地的适应性和细胞过程，适用于复杂的景观。该模拟模型将以下各项作为输入：（a）物种扩散能力作为主要的生物学参数，（b）物种栖息地的适宜性，以及（c）调节扩散的景观结构。我们的模型强调了景观特征及其时间动态在物种内种群间遗传分化中的作用。我们以北半球整个物种分布范围内的驯鹿/驯鹿种群为例，说明了我们的模型。我们显示，过去21年的模拟预测了与经验数据相匹配的种群遗传结构。