Abstract The Southern Ocean near the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is strongly affected by climate change resulting in warmer air temperature, accompanied with reduced sea ice coverage, increased sea water temperature and potential changes in the abundances of two key grazer species Salpa thompsoni (salp) and Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill). While salp abundance is hypothesized to increase, krill abundance is hypothesized to decline with dramatic consequences for the entire food web of the Southern Ocean. A better understanding of the biotic interaction between krill and salps and their population dynamics is thus crucial. However, the life cycle of salps is complicated and barely understood. Therefore, we have developed an individual-based model describing the whole life cycle to better understand the population dynamics of salps and the conditions for blooms. The model has been used to explore if and under what conditions the empirical pattern of large variability in observed salp abundances at the WAP, generated by the long-term data of the US Antarctic Marine Living Resources Program (AMLR) can emerge from a small seeding population. The model reproduced this empirical pattern if daily growth rates of oozoids were higher than previously reported for the WAP (mean growth rate for oozoids ~ 1 mm d−1) and if growth rates of blastozooids were lower (mean growth rate ~ 0.2 mm d−1). The model suggests that a prerequisite for local salp blooms requires a small founding population in early spring. With climate change it has been suggested that more frequent and earlier transport of salps into the WAP or winter survival will occur. Hence, the risk of salp blooms in the WAP is likely to substantially increase. These findings highlight the importance for an improved quantitative understanding of how primary production and the southward advection of salps will be impacted by climate change.

中文翻译：

---

南大洋主要食草动物的绽放——基于个体的 Salpa thompsoni 模型

摘要 南极半岛西部（WAP）附近的南大洋受到气候变化的强烈影响，导致气温升高，海冰覆盖率降低，海水温度升高，两种主要食草动物物种 Salpa thompsoni（salp）的丰度可能发生变化。 ) 和 Euphausia superba（南极磷虾）。虽然假设salp丰度增加，但假设磷虾丰度下降，对南大洋的整个食物网产生巨大影响。因此，更好地了解磷虾和鲑鱼之间的生物相互作用及其种群动态至关重要。然而，salps的生命周期很复杂，几乎不了解。所以，我们开发了一个基于个体的模型来描述整个生命周期，以更好地了解盐渍藻的种群动态和开花条件。该模型已被用于探索由美国南极海洋生物资源计划 (AMLR) 的长期数据生成的 WAP 观测到的盐分丰度的大可变性的经验模式是否以及在什么条件下可以从少量播种中出现人口。如果 oozoids 的日增长率高于 WAP 之前报告的平均增长率（oozoids 的平均增长率 ~ 1 mm d−1），并且如果胚泡的增长率较低（平均增长率 ~ 0.2 mm d− ），则该模型再现了这种经验模式。 1）。该模型表明，当地盐渍化的先决条件需要早春的少量创始种群。随着气候变化，有人建议将更频繁和更早地将液体运输到 WAP 或冬季存活。因此，WAP 中水华的风险可能会大幅增加。这些发现强调了改进对初级生产和盐渍藻的南向平流将如何受到气候变化影响的定量理解的重要性。