Climate-driven environmental change is predicted to accelerate over the coming decades. Anticipating the ecological consequences requires a fundamental understanding of how environmental variables influence key habitats and species. Southeastern Australia is a marine climate change hotspot, characterised by rapidly increasing sea surface temperatures, strengthening currents and increasing storm frequency. To understand ecosystem responses to environmental drivers in this region, and to anticipate future climate-driven change, we examined the spatial distribution and environmental relationships of key marine habitats, fish assemblages, and the ecologically important urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii along $\sim$1000 km of reef off southeastern Australia using towed video transects. We also identified potential biological indicators of climate-driven changes to rocky reef ecosystems, based on ecological importance, ease of measurement, and sensitivity to one or more climate-affected environmental drivers. Significant latitudinal gradients were identified for biota, with habitats, fish assemblages and urchin densities all varying latitudinally with sea surface temperature and current strength. Wave energy and distance offshore were identified as drivers of biota at local-scales (100–1000 m). These results indicate that climate-driven changes to various environmental factors will alter the composition and distribution of marine biota, at a variety of scales. The average thermal niche for fish assemblages varied significantly with changing mean sea surface temperature and may be a sentinel indicator of climate-driven changes. Coverage of the kelp Ecklonia radiata, densities of the urchin C. rodgersii, and coral cover were also confirmed as potential valuable biological indicators of climate-driven changes. These indicators, and the widespread baseline data assembled in this study, will facilitate detection of future changes to rocky reef ecosystems in southeastern Australia.

预计在未来几十年中，气候驱动的环境变化将加速。预期生态后果需要对环境变量如何影响关键生境和物种有基本的了解。澳大利亚东南部是海洋气候变化热点，其特征是海面温度迅速升高，洋流增强和风暴频率增加。为了了解生态系统对该区域环境驱动力的响应，并预测未来气候变化，我们研究了主要海洋生境，鱼类种群以及沿途具有重要生态意义的海胆Centrostephanus rodgersii的空间分布和环境关系。$〜$使用拖曳的视频样带，在澳大利亚东南部1000公里的礁石上。我们还根据生态重要性，易于测量以及对一种或多种受气候影响的环境驱动因素的敏感性，确定了气候驱动的礁石生态系统变化的潜在生物学指标。确定了生物群的重要纬度梯度，其生境，鱼群和海胆密度均随海表温度和海流强度而纬度变化。波浪能和近海距离被认为是当地规模（100-1000 m）生物群的驱动力。这些结果表明，气候驱动的各种环境因素的变化将在各种规模上改变海洋生物群的组成和分布。鱼群的平均热生态位随平均海表温度的变化而显着变化，可能是气候驱动变化的前兆指标。海带的覆盖范围Ecklonia radiata，海胆罗氏梭菌的密度和珊瑚覆盖度也被确认为气候驱动型变化的潜在有价值的生物学指标。这些指标以及本研究中收集的广泛的基线数据，将有助于检测澳大利亚东南部岩石礁生态系统的未来变化。