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Incorporation of risk preferences in a value‐based systems engineering framework
Systems Engineering ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-15 , DOI: 10.1002/sys.21529
Hanumanthrao Kannan 1 , Bryan L. Mesmer 2 , Christina L. Bloebaum 3
Affiliation  

Large‐scale complex engineered systems are designed in large organizations consisting of hundreds or thousands of individuals making design decisions at different stages in the process. These complex systems are inherently multidisciplinary and uncertain, involving diverse disciplines spanning geographical locations. Without a means to guide their decisions, these many decision‐makers fall back on selecting a design according to their own value and risk preferences. The primary focus of this paper is to enable consistency in design decision‐making with respect to both value and risk preferences of the stakeholder. A new value‐based systems engineering (VBSE) framework is presented that enables physics‐based system consistency as well as consistency in communication of value and risk preferences for design decision‐making in a hierarchically decomposed system. This framework embraces principles of value‐driven design and multidisciplinary design optimization, while also ensuring consistency in risk preferences throughout the system to address uncertainty. Improper communication of risk preferences could result in nonoptimal designs, which are risk biased by the design decision‐makers at different levels of the hierarchy, with respect to the stakeholder's preferences. Consistency in risk preferences in the context of the VBSE framework is addressed in this research by incorporating decision analysis techniques.

中文翻译:

将风险偏好纳入基于价值的系统工程框架中

大型复杂工程系统是在大型组织中设计的,大型组织由成百上千的个人在流程的不同阶段做出设计决策。这些复杂的系统本质上是多学科的且不确定的,涉及跨越地理位置的不同学科。由于无法指导决策,因此许多决策者只能根据自己的价值和风险偏好选择设计。本文的主要重点是在利益相关者的价值和风险偏好方面实现设计决策的一致性。提出了一个新的基于价值的系统工程(VBSE)框架,该框架可实现基于物理的系统一致性,以及在分层分解的系统中进行设计决策时价值和风险偏好沟通的一致性。该框架包含价值驱动设计和多学科设计优化的原则,同时还确保整个系统中的风险偏好一致性,以解决不确定性。风险偏好的不正确沟通可能会导致设计不理想,而在不同层次的设计决策者中,就利益相关者的偏好而言,存在风险偏向。通过结合决策分析技术,本研究解决了VBSE框架中风险偏好的一致性。该框架包含价值驱动设计和多学科设计优化的原则,同时还确保整个系统中的风险偏好一致性,以解决不确定性。风险偏好的不正确沟通可能会导致设计不理想,而在不同层次的设计决策者中,就利益相关者的偏好而言,存在风险偏向。通过结合决策分析技术,本研究解决了VBSE框架中风险偏好的一致性。该框架包含价值驱动设计和多学科设计优化的原则,同时还确保整个系统中的风险偏好一致性,以解决不确定性。风险偏好的不正确沟通可能会导致设计不理想,这会导致利益相关者的偏好在层次结构的不同级别上受到设计决策者的偏见。通过结合决策分析技术,本研究解决了VBSE框架中风险偏好的一致性。在利益相关者的偏好方面,这些风险在层次结构的不同级别上受设计决策者的偏见。通过结合决策分析技术,本研究解决了VBSE框架中风险偏好的一致性。在利益相关者的偏好方面,这些风险在层次结构的不同级别上受设计决策者的偏见。通过结合决策分析技术,本研究解决了VBSE框架中风险偏好的一致性。
更新日期:2020-01-15
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