Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index,Journal of Forecasting

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Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index
Journal of Forecasting ( IF 2.627 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-21 , DOI: 10.1002/for.2696
Yu Wei ₁ , Lan Bai ₁ , Kun Yang _{2,

3} , Guiwu Wei ₄

Affiliation

Effectively explaining and accurately forecasting industrial stock volatility can provide crucial references to develop investment strategies, prevent market risk and maintain the smooth running of national economy. This paper aims to discuss the roles of industry‐level indicators in industrial stock volatility. Selecting Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and its five component PMI as the proxies of industry‐level indicators, we analyze the contributions of PMI on industrial stock volatility and further compare the volatility forecasting performances of PMI, macroeconomic fundamentals and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), by constructing the individual and combination GARCH‐MIDAS models. The empirical results manifest that, first, most of the PMI has significant negative effects on industrial stock volatility. Second, PMI which focuses on the industrial sector itself is more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility compared with the commonly used macroeconomic fundamentals and economic policy uncertainty. Finally, the combination GARCH‐MIDAS approaches based on DMA technique demonstrate more excellent predictive abilities than the individual GARCH‐MIDAS models. Our major conclusions are robust through various robustness checks.

更新日期：2020-04-21

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