Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries,Journal of Forecasting

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › J. Forecast. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries
Journal of Forecasting ( IF 2.627 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-08 , DOI: 10.1002/for.2695
Nada Azmy ElBerry ₁ , Stijn Goeminne ₂

Affiliation

Fiscal transparency entails fiscal information disclosure, ensuring good quality of such information, public and parliamentary scrutiny, and the oversight of fiscal risks, while the concept of budget credibility involves an assessment of the extent of conformity of budgetary outturn to the planned forecasts. There are two main channels through which fiscal transparency can affect budget credibility, which are the politicians’ incentives to manipulate fiscal forecasts or deviate from the plans, and the uncertainty-reducing effect in the light of fiscal risks. This study empirically examines the impact of the dimensions of fiscal transparency on the deviations from budgetary forecasts, and hence budget credibility, in developing countries using regression analysis. The results show that an improvement in the oversight of fiscal risks arising from public sector entities plays a very significant role in decreasing the deviations from budgetary forecasts in developing countries. The study accords with the view that a relatively less important weight should be attached to the fiscal disclosure component in analysing fiscal transparency, and it sheds light on the importance of ensuring good quality of disclosed information through more independence of audit bodies in developing countries in order to enhance the credibility of their budgets.

更新日期：2020-07-08

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

阅读更多本刊最新论文

全部期刊列表>>