This study aims at the spatial‐temporal evaluation of projected hydrological flow characteristics under varying climate projections driven by RCP 4.5 scenario for 10 selected catchments in Poland using deterministic and stochastic concepts: to assess dependency characteristics of flow variables; to classify flood type regimes using flood duration and magnitude; and to assess and evaluate the changes in hydrological characteristics in the near and far future periods. The results show a stronger correlation between the hydrological flow variables in the mountainous catchments than lowland located catchments. While flood volume and number of events have moderate dependency due to the role of groundwater plays a major role on the water balance of the catchment. Both, peak flow and flood duration are occurred more frequent and prolonged in most of the selected catchments in Poland but were relatively small in Guber and Narewka catchments. Quantiles of peak flow and duration were estimated and associated uncertainty was identified for each catchment, which is crucial for hydraulic infrastructure design and flood adaptation and protection.

中文翻译：

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气候变化影响下的河流流量特征和变化

本研究旨在利用确定性和随机性概念，对波兰10个选定流域的RCP 4.5情景驱动的不同气候预测下预测水文流量特征的时空评估。使用洪水持续时间和洪水强度对洪水类型进行分类；并评估和评估近期和远期水文特征的变化。结果表明，山区流域的水文流量变量之间的相关性高于低地流域。虽然洪水的数量和事件的数量由于地下水的作用而具有中等依赖性，但在集水区的水平衡中起着重要的作用。都，在波兰，大多数选定流域的洪峰流量和洪水持续时间更为频繁和延长，但在古伯和纳鲁卡流域则相对较小。估算了峰值流量和持续时间的分位数，并确定了每个流域的相关不确定性，这对于水力基础设施设计以及洪水适应和保护至关重要。