Meteorological extreme events have a major impact on water resources, economic development, and ecosystem health. In this study, maximum precipitation and maximum temperature indices were derived for Isfahan province, in central Iran, over the historical (1992–2017) and future (2020–2100) periods. Precipitation and maximum temperature data from the REMO model under RCP4.5 scenario were used to investigate changes in extreme values over the future period. The results showed that extreme precipitation in the historical and future periods has respectively a decreasing and increasing trend. Based on the extreme indices, temperature in the study area has a significant increasing trend in the baseline and future period. Various combinations of extreme precipitation indicators were created for joint modeling by copula theory. Copula modeling for the three weather stations for which REMO had satisfactory performance in simulating extremes over the historic period showed that the average return period of extreme precipitation combinations will be reduced in the future period compared to the historical period at Daran and Shahreza, while the average return period of combinations will have both increasing and decreasing trends at Naeen.

中文翻译：

---

利用REMO模型和copula理论对伊朗伊斯法罕省1992 – 2100年极端降水和最高温度的观测和预测趋势

气象极端事件对水资源，经济发展和生态系统健康具有重大影响。在这项研究中，得出了伊朗中部伊斯法罕省在历史时期（1992–2017年）和未来时期（2020–2100年）的最大降水量和最高温度指数。在RCP4.5情景下，来自REMO模型的降水和最高温度数据被用于调查未来期间极值的变化。结果表明，历史时期和未来时期的极端降水量分别呈下降和上升趋势。基于极端指数，研究区域的温度在基线和未来期间都有明显的上升趋势。通过copula理论创建了各种极端降水指标组合用于联合建模。