Understanding the complex relationship between the duration and size of forest fires is important in order to better predict these key characteristics of fires for fire management purposes in a changing climate. Describing this relationship is also important for our fundamental understanding of fire science. Here, we develop and utilize novel techniques for characterizing the distribution of multiple outcomes related to a specific event, placed in the fire science context. In this framework, we jointly model time spent (duration), in days, and area burned (size), in hectares, from ground attack to final control of a fire as a bivariate survival outcome using two broad methodologies: a copula model that connects the two outcomes functionally and a joint modeling framework that connects the two outcomes with a shared random effect. We compare these two methodologies in terms of their utility and predictive power. We also consider how longitudinal environmental variables (e.g., precipitation, drought indices) are best incorporated in this context and the challenges related to the complexity of computation associated with the analysis of two outcomes considered jointly.

中文翻译：

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将扩展攻击野火的持续时间和规模建模为相关结果

了解森林火灾的持续时间和规模之间的复杂关系非常重要，以便更好地预测火灾的这些关键特征，以便在不断变化的气候中进行火灾管理。描述这种关系对于我们对火灾科学的基本理解也很重要。在这里，我们开发和利用新技术来表征与特定事件相关的多个结果的分布，置于火灾科学背景下。在这个框架中，我们使用两种广泛的方法联合模拟了从地面攻击到最终控制火灾所花费的时间（持续时间）和燃烧面积（大小），以公顷为单位作为双变量生存结果：连接模型这两个结果在功能上以及一个联合建模框架，该框架将两个结果与共享的随机效应联系起来。我们比较这两种方法的实用性和预测能力。我们还考虑了纵向环境变量（例如，降水、干旱指数）如何最好地结合在这种情况下，以及与联合考虑的两个结果的分析相关的计算复杂性相关的挑战。