This study examines the role of resource abundance in the cross‐country differences in the impacts of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009. Using forecasts from the unobserved components model and exponential smoothing technique, we estimate the output levels a country would reach in 2009 and 2013 in the absence of the GFC, and compare these with the realised output levels. We find large variations in the output losses across 72 countries. The mineral‐rich countries have been found to be in a strong position to survive any adverse shocks stemming from the GFC. Income per capita, trade openness, and institutional quality and government effectiveness are also found to be key factors determining the differences in output loss in the post‐crisis period. These findings have strong implications for resource‐rich countries such as Australia and are expected to shed new light on alternative policy designs and appropriate strategies to deal with any future economic crisis.

中文翻译：

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资源丰富，金融危机和经济增长：资源丰富的国家在全球金融危机期间的表现是否更好？

本研究考察了资源丰富度在2008-2009年全球金融危机（GFC）影响的跨国差异中的作用。使用来自未观察到的组件模型的预测和指数平滑技术，我们估计在没有GFC的情况下一个国家在2009年和2013年将达到的产出水平，并将其与已实现的产出水平进行比较。我们发现72个国家/地区的产出损失差异很大。现已发现矿产丰富的国家处于有利地位，可以抵御全球金融危机造成的任何不利冲击。还发现人均收入，贸易开放度，机构质量和政府有效性是决定危机后产出损失差异的关键因素。