This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.

中文翻译：

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新西兰乳制品建模：出口生存期和持续时间的证据

本文提供了有关1989年至2017年新西兰乳制品出口持续时间和生存方式的证据。它还分析了一组供应，需求和重力类型驱动因素对新西兰乳制品出口关系的危害率的影响。研究结果总结如下。首先，新西兰乳制品出口关系是动态的，有进出国外市场的大量进出出口。在顺序级别上，大约一半的关系只能存活1-2年。第二，顺序的持续时间，左删节，初始出口，分解的顺序，新西兰出口价格指数，可用于乳制品生产的母牛数量，起源和目的地的数量以及目的地伙伴的GDP是减少危害的最重要因素。出口关系率。关于非关税措施的效果，有趣的是，发现贸易技术壁垒可大大降低危险率。只有装运前检查和或有贸易保护措施才是新西兰乳制品出口关系的重大障碍。最后，无论是否对新西兰乳制品采取非关税措施，随着时间的推移，新西兰乳制品出口关系的危险概率估计为“ L形”。