Due to local extinction, the endangered green carpenter bee (Xylocopa aerata) has a disjunct distribution in the southeast of Australia. The species relies on dead softwood from a small selection of plant species for making its nests. Habitat fragmentation, combined with deleterious fire events, is thought to have negatively impacted on nesting substrate availability and recolonisation chances. Here, we use MaxEnt algorithm to model both the current distribution and the effect of climate change scenarios on the distribution of both X. aerata and four plant species that provide most of its nesting substrate: Banksia integrifolia, B. marginata, Xanthorrhoea arborea and Xanthorrhoea semiplana subsp. tateana. The annual mean temperature is the strongest climatic predictor of the distribution of X. aerata and its host plants. The modelled distribution of the bee under current climatic conditions indicates that climatic factors are unlikely to cause local extinctions. In all future scenarios, suitable areas for X. aerata and each of its nesting hosts are expected to contract towards the southeast of mainland Australia. The suitability of Kangaroo Island for the bee and its current local current host species is maintained in all scenarios, while Tasmania will become increasingly suitable for all species. The Grampians National Park in western Victoria, where the bee species were last seen outside of its current range (in the 1930s), is predicted to remain suitable for X. aerata and several host plants under all scenarios. Therefore, this relatively large area of native vegetation may be a good case study for re‐introduction as part of future conservation efforts.

中文翻译：

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模拟绿木蜂（Xylocopa aerata）及其筑巢宿主在当前和未来情景下的气候适宜性，以指导保护工作

由于局部灭绝，濒临灭绝的绿木蜂（Xylocopa aerata）在澳大利亚东南部有间断分布。该物种依靠来自少量植物物种的死软木来筑巢。栖息地破碎，加上有害的火灾事件，被认为对筑巢基质的可用性和重新定殖的机会产生了负面影响。在这里，我们使用 MaxEnt 算法对当前分布以及气候变化情景对 X. aerata 和四种提供大部分筑巢基质的植物物种分布的影响进行建模：Banksia integrifolia、B. marginata、Xanthorrhoea arborea 和 Xanthorrhoea半平面亚种 塔塔纳。年平均温度是 X. aerata 及其寄主植物分布的最强气候预测因子。蜜蜂在当前气候条件下的模拟分布表明，气候因素不太可能导致局部灭绝。在未来的所有情景中，澳大利亚大陆东南部的 X. aerata 及其每个筑巢宿主的适宜区域预计将收缩。袋鼠岛对蜜蜂及其当前当地当前寄主物种的适应性在所有情况下都保持不变，而塔斯马尼亚将越来越适合所有物种。维多利亚州西部的格兰屏国家公园（Grampians National Park）在目前的分布范围之外（1930 年代）最后一次看到蜜蜂物种，预计在所有情况下仍然适合 X. aerata 和几种寄主植物。因此，作为未来保护工作的一部分，这片相对较大的原生植被区域可能是重新引入的一个很好的案例研究。