Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species distribution has several implications for conservation. Plinia edulis is a rare and threatened tree species from Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. In this study, we assessed the impact of global climate change on the distribution of P. edulis. Additionally, we evaluated the efficacy of the Brazilian protected network to conserve this species. Ecological niche models were built using the maximum entropy method based on occurrence records and environmental predictors. Models predicted a reduction of climatically suitable areas for P. edulis in all evaluated scenarios in the coming years. Furthermore, we observed that Brazilian protected areas (PAs) are ineffective to conserve this species. Given the fact that P. edulis is a promising tree species rarely found within Brazilian PAs and threatened by global climate change, we strongly recommend the cultivation of this multipurpose species in agroforestry systems, landscaping and homegardens in order to promote its conservation through sustainable use.

中文翻译：

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气候变化加剧了对被忽视的 Plinia edulis 的灭绝威胁，但通过可持续利用进行保护可能会减轻

预测气候变化对物种分布的影响对保护有几个影响。Plinia edulis 是一种来自巴西大西洋雨林的珍稀濒危树种。在这项研究中，我们评估了全球气候变化对 P. edulis 分布的影响。此外，我们评估了巴西保护网络保护该物种的功效。生态位模型是使用基于事件记录和环境预测因子的最大熵方法建立的。模型预测，在未来几年中，在所有评估情景中，P. edulis 的气候适宜区域将减少。此外，我们观察到巴西保护区 (PA) 无法保护该物种。鉴于 P.