Abstract

The paper assessed the predictability of the seismic energy rate and large earthquakes in southern Europe and the Mediterranean according to the data from the United States Geological Survey catalog for 1900–2016. A nonlinear second-order differential equation is used as a mathematical model, and optimization and predictability estimation algorithms are this author’s. The estimates show a high predictability of energy rate trends. For 84 out of 217 large earthquakes in the region, we have found foreshock predictability, and aftershock predictability for 200 earthquakes. The predictability of large earthquakes begins to be seen at small (1.5–7.5 km) radii of hypocenter samples, increases rapidly at medium (15 and 30 km) radii, then more smoothly increases at a radius of 60 km and decreases slightly at a radius of 150 km. The predicted distance in time averages tens of days for foreshock predictability and thousands of days for aftershocks. The results demonstrate good prospects for the approximation–extrapolation approach to the prediction of both earthquakes themselves and the subsequent aftershock decay of seismic activity.

中文翻译：

---

地震能量通量的可预测性：南欧和地中海

摘要

根据美国地质调查局1900-2016年的数据，本文评估了南欧和地中海地震能级和大地震的可预测性。非线性二阶微分方程被用作数学模型，并且优化和可预测性估计算法是作者的。估计显示出电费趋势的高度可预测性。对于该地区217次大地震中的84次，我们发现前震可预测性和200次地震的余震可预测性。在震源样本的小半径（1.5-7.5 km）处开始看到大地震的可预测性，在中等半径（15和30 km）处迅速增加，然后在60 km半径处更平稳地增加，在半径半径处略有下降150公里。对于前震的可预测性，时间预测的平均时间为数十天，对于余震的预测时间平均为数千天。结果表明，采用近似-外推法预测地震本身以及随后地震活动的余震衰减都具有良好的前景。