Using the gross world product (GWP) as the only exogenous input variable, we design a model able to accurately reproduce the global population dynamics over the period 1950–2015. For any future increasing GWP scenarios, our model yields very similar population trajectories. The major implication of this result is that both the United Nations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assume future decoupling possibilities between economic development and fertility that have never been witnessed during the last 65 years. In case of an abrupt collapse of the economic production, our model responds with higher death rates that are more than offset by increasing birth rates, leading to a relatively larger and younger population. Finally, we add to our model an excess mortality function associated with climate change. Estimates of additional climate-related deaths for 2095–2100 range from 1 million in a +2°C scenario to 6 million in a +4°C scenario.

使用世界生产总值（GWP）作为唯一的外部输入变量，我们设计了一个模型，该模型能够准确地再现1950-2015年期间的全球人口动态。对于任何未来增长的全球升温潜能值情景，我们的模型都会得出非常相似的人口轨迹。这一结果的主要含义是，联合国和政府间气候变化专门委员会都承担了过去65年从未见过的经济发展与生育率之间未来脱钩的可能性。在经济生产突然崩溃的情况下，我们的模型会以更高的死亡率做出反应，而死亡率却被增加的出生率所抵消，从而导致相对更大和更年轻的人​​口。最后，我们在模型中增加了与气候变化有关的超额死亡率函数。