Some of the most effective public programs used in Latin America to reduce poverty and inequality have been non-contributory cash transfers. We examine country-specific characteristics that lead countries to adopt these programs over time using a state-transition spatial probit panel data model that takes into account dependence between countries’ decision to adopt these programs. Intuitively, past adoption of cash transfer programs by other countries might have an impact on the probability that a country implements this type of program. We explore alternative connectivity structures to model dependence, spatial proximity as well as connections based on population migration flows, finding out-migration as most consistent with our sample data and spatial regression specification. For our panel of 17 Latin American countries over the period 2000–2017, we find evidence of dependence between countries in the probability of adoption of conditional cash transfer programs, but no such evidence in the case of unconditional cash transfer programs.

中文翻译：

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拉丁美洲国家采用现金转移计划时的溢出效应

拉丁美洲用于减少贫困和不平等的最有效的公共计划是非缴款现金转移。我们使用状态转换空间概率面板数据模型来研究导致国家随时间采用这些程序的特定于国家的特征，该模型考虑了国家采用这些程序的决策之间的依赖性。直觉上，其他国家过去采用现金转移计划可能会影响一个国家实施此类计划的可能性。我们探索了替代连通性结构，以对依赖关系，空间接近度以及基于人口迁移流的连接进行建模，发现向外迁移与我们的样本数据和空间回归规范最一致。