Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry.,The Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation

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Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry.
The Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation ( IF 1.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-10 , DOI: 10.1177/1040638720912406
Giovani Trevisan _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Leticia C M Linhares _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Bret Crim _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Poonam Dubey _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Kent J Schwartz _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Eric R Burrough _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Chong Wang _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Rodger G Main _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Paul Sundberg _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Mary Thurn _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Paulo T F Lages _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Cesar A Corzo _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Jerry Torrison _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Jamie Henningson _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Eric Herrman _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Gregg A Hanzlicek _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Ram Raghavan _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Douglas Marthaler _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Jon Greseth _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Travis Clement _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Jane Christopher-Hennings _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , David Muscatello _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6} , Daniel C L Linhares _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5,

6}

Affiliation

We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.

中文翻译：

预测美国养猪业中猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒RNA检测的季节性模式。

我们开发了一种模型，用于通过来自美国4个主要以猪为中心的兽医诊断实验室（VDL）的逆转录实时PCR（RT-rtPCR）预测猪繁殖与呼吸综合征病毒（PRRSV）RNA的循环模式并使用历史数据来预测来年的每周阳性提交百分比，并在检测模式不符合预期时发出爆发信号。使用标准化的提交数据和测试结果。使用每周PCR阳性呈报百分比构成的历史数据（2015-2017）拟合循环稳健回归模型。这些发现用于预测2018年PCR呈报的预期每周百分比，置信区间（CI）为95％。2018年，PRRSV阳性提交的比例在第2、14-25和48周时超过了95％CI边界。第2周和第48周相对较高的检出率主要来自包含断奶到市场的猪样品的提交，以及第14周-25主要来自成年/母猪场的样本。每年都有反复出现的检测模式，其中断奶至成年养殖场提交的报告中PRRSV RNA检测比例增加，而成年/母猪养殖场的样品检测率增加。本文所述模型的结果使用从4个VDL合并的测试结果确认了PRRSV检测的季节性循环模式。冬季波峰持续发生，夏季波谷持续发生。

更新日期：2020-04-10

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