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Influence of Indian Ocean SST regionality on the East African short rains
Climate Dynamics ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05265-8
Weiran Liu , Kerry H. Cook , Edward K. Vizy

Three sub-regions of the Indian Ocean in which SSTs significantly influence the equatorial East African short rains on interannual timescales are identified, and the physical processes of this influence are studied using regional climate model simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Five 20-year ensemble integrations are generated to represent a control climate and to simulate the individual and combined effects of SSTAs in the influential regions. SSTAs in the western Indian Ocean exert a stronger influence on the equatorial East African short rains than central and eastern Indian Ocean SSTAs both in terms of the coverage of significantly-changed precipitation and the magnitude of the precipitation response. Positive western Indian Ocean SSTAs significantly increase the short rains over 95% of the equatorial East Africa domain (30°–40°E, 5°S–5°N), while only 30% of the region responds to central and eastern Indian Ocean SSTAs. Evidence of an influential Indian Ocean dipole mode does not emerge from the analysis. The mechanisms of this influence are diagnosed using atmospheric moisture budget and moist static energy analyses, with reference to Kelvin and Rossby wave generation as in the Gill model, but in the presence of complicated topography and nonzero background flows. Wind convergence anomalies in a moist environment primarily support precipitation anomalies in all cases, while changes in atmospheric instability are largely controlled by low-level moisture. Central and eastern Indian Ocean SSTAs change circulations and precipitation locally, but the remote influence on East Africa is weaker than that of the western Indian Ocean SSTAs.



中文翻译:

印度洋海表温度区域对东非短时降雨的影响

确定了印度洋的三个子区域,其中海表温度在每年的时间尺度上对赤道东非短降雨产生重大影响,并使用来自天气研究和预报模型(WRF)的区域气候模型模拟研究了这种影响的物理过程。生成了五个20年的集合集成,以表示控制气候并模拟有影响力区域中SSTA的单独和组合作用。在降水变化的覆盖范围和降水响应的大小方面,印度洋西部的SSTA对赤道东非短雨的影响都比中部和东部印度洋SSTA大。印度洋西部SSTA的正数显着增加了赤道东非地区(30°–40°E,5°S–5°N)的95%以上的短时降雨,而该地区只有30%响应中部和东部印度洋SSTA。从分析中没有得出有影响力的印度洋偶极子模式的证据。参照吉尔模型中的开尔文和罗斯比波的产生,使用大气水分收支和潮湿的静态能量分析来诊断这种影响的机制,但是存在复杂的地形和非零背景流。在所有情况下,潮湿环境中的风会聚异常都主要支持降水异常,而大气不稳定性的变化很大程度上由低水平的水分控制。印度洋中部和东部的SSTA会改变当地的环流和降水,

更新日期:2020-04-28
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