The aim of this paper is to identify the ground motion models (GMMs), applicable in active shallow crustal regions (ASCRs) and subduction zones (SZs), to be used for the new release of the seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19) for peak ground acceleration and 12 ordinates of the acceleration response spectra (5% damping) in the period range 0.05–4 s. The steps to achieve such goal are: (1) a pre-selection of the GMMs that takes into account the suitability for the application to the Italian territory and the fulfillment of the new hazard model requirements; (2) the assessment of a proper scoring of the pre-selected GMMs using strong-motion data recorded in Italy; (3) the selection of the GMMs to be used in the hazard calculation. The final set of GMMs describes satisfactorily the epistemic uncertainty of the ground shaking process, privileging the simplicity and flexibility of the functional form. Finally, the weights of the selected GMMs are assigned combining the results of the scoring and the weights obtained through an experts’ elicitation.

中文翻译：

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意大利新地震灾害模型（MPS19）的地震动模型：活动浅地壳区域和俯冲带的选择

本文的目的是确定适用于活动浅地壳区域（ASCR）和俯冲带（SZs）的地面运动模型（GMM），这些模型将用于新发布的意大利地震灾害模型（MPS19）峰值地面加速度和加速度响应谱（5％阻尼）的12个纵坐标在0.05–4 s的时间范围内。实现这一目标的步骤是：（1）对GMM进行预选，其中要考虑到适用于意大利领土和满足新的危害模型要求的情况；（2）使用在意大利记录的强运动数据评估预选GMM的适当评分；（3）选择用于危害计算的GMM。最后一组GMM令人满意地描述了地面震动过程的认知不确定性，享有功能形式的简单性和灵活性。最后，将评分结果与通过专家指导得出的权重相结合，分配所选GMM的权重。