Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well‐observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state‐of‐the‐art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption.

中文翻译：

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十年期预报系统中火山喷发对气候的强烈影响。

主要的热带火山喷发对气候影响很大，但在最近相对良好的观察期内，仅发生了三起大型喷发。因此，模型是理解和预测喷发影响的重要工具。这项研究使用了五个最新的年代际预测系统​​，这些系统在引入火山气溶胶之前已根据观测到的状态进行了初始化。通过减去省略了火山气溶胶的参考实验的结果，可以发现火山气溶胶的影响。我们通过结合所有实验来寻找对模型和火山的强烈影响，即使在模型中信号较弱也有助于揭示信号。本研究中使用的模型模拟了平流层中现实的变暖水平，但纬向风比观测值弱。结果，在喷发后的第一个冬季，模型可以产生类似于北大西洋涛动的模式，但是对地表温度的响应和影响比观测的要弱。再现图案而不是幅度，可能与已知的模型误差有关。在太平洋和大西洋也有影响。这项工作有助于在未来的大型热带火山喷发的情况下改善年代际预测的解释。