With the deep recession now forecast for the world economy, trade can be expected to fall even more steeply. Agricultural trade will be less significantly affected, being insulated by its relatively low income elasticities of demand. However, a drop in the range of 12%–20% in real trade value should be expected. Canada can be expected to share in this, but, within agricultural exports, cereals will be least affected. This minimal expected impact to cereals stems partly from the risk of wheat export bans by Russia and Kazakhstan, due to increases in wheat prices. Livestock, pulses, and horticulture exporters can be expected to face a larger decline in trade prospects and revenues. An equally large threat, along with falling incomes in our trade partners, is their policy responses, particularly the potential increase in import restrictions. These may take the form of more costly inspections, tightened SPS and food safety regulations, and protectionist measures from competing domestic producers.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19大流行：预计其对加拿大农业贸易的影响

随着世界经济目前预计将出现严重衰退，预计贸易将进一步下降。由于其相对较低的需求收入弹性，农产品贸易将受到的影响较小。但是，预计实际贸易价值将下降12％至20％。可以预期加拿大将分享这一份额，但是在农产品出口中，谷物受影响最小。对谷物的这种最小预期影响部分归因于俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦禁止小麦出口的风险，原因是小麦价格上涨。预计畜牧，豆类和园艺出口商的贸易前景和收入将面临更大的下降。同样巨大的威胁，加上我们贸易伙伴的收入下降，是他们的政策反应，尤其是潜在的进口限制增加。