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Climate change impacts on human health at an actionable scale: a state-level assessment of Indiana, USA
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02710-9
G. M. Filippelli , J. L. Freeman , J. Gibson , S. Jay , M. J. Moreno-Madriñán , I. Ogashawara , F. S. Rosenthal , Y. Wang , E. Wells

Climate change is already being felt on local levels, with historical records from the State of Indiana (USA) revealing warmer winters and more extreme precipitation events. To refine our understanding of climate change impacts on human health, we conducted a state-level assessment of future climate change impacts on human health using outputs from advanced climate model projections for this century. Future projections show a steep increase in extreme heat events, leading to greater potential vulnerability to heat disasters for Indiana communities. Additionally, a 2- to 4-fold increase in days with “uncomfortable night” conditions by the end of the century will strongly impact the cardiopulmonary health of more vulnerable populations (i.e., elderly, those with pre-existing conditions, children, and those with inadequate access to cooling). Continued trends for warmer winters and more flooding suggest a much greater risk for the expansion and virulence of a number of vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, West Nile Virus, and “tropical” diseases for which the mosquito vectors will thrive. Higher temperatures will also drive more frequent and severe harmful algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs, with implications for human and animal health. Food systems will also be impacted, particularly with increased risk of contamination by bacteria and mycotoxins due to elevated heat and humidity.

中文翻译:

气候变化在可操作的范围内对人类健康的影响:美国印第安纳州的州级评估

地方层面已经感受到气候变化,印第安纳州(美国)的历史记录显示冬季更暖和,更极端的降水事件。为了完善我们对气候变化对人类健康影响的理解,我们使用本世纪先进气候模型预测的输出,对未来气候变化对人类健康的影响进行了州级评估。未来的预测显示,极端高温事件急剧增加,导致印第安纳州社区更容易遭受高温灾害。此外,到本世纪末,“夜间不舒服”的天数将增加 2 到 4 倍,这将对更脆弱人群(即老年人、有既往疾病的人、儿童和其他人)的心肺健康产生强烈影响。无法获得足够的冷却)。温暖的冬季和更多洪水的持续趋势表明,许多媒介传播疾病(如莱姆病、西尼罗河病毒和蚊媒将在其中茁壮成长的“热带”疾病)的传播和毒力的风险要大得多。更高的温度还会导致湖泊和水库中更频繁和更严重的有害藻华,对人类和动物健康产生影响。食品系统也将受到影响,特别是由于高温和湿度升高,细菌和真菌毒素污染的风险增加。更高的温度还会导致湖泊和水库中更频繁和更严重的有害藻华,对人类和动物健康产生影响。食品系统也将受到影响,特别是由于高温和湿度升高,细菌和真菌毒素污染的风险增加。更高的温度还会导致湖泊和水库中更频繁和更严重的有害藻华,对人类和动物健康产生影响。食品系统也将受到影响,特别是由于高温和湿度升高,细菌和真菌毒素污染的风险增加。
更新日期:2020-04-22
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