Abstract Oil palm, a vital crop, contributes significantly to the economic and social development of Malaysia. However, a pathogen such as the Basal Stem Rot (BSR) poses a significant threat to the oil palm that would lead to significant economic losses. Motivated by this development, we utilize a partial equilibrium model of Malaysian agriculture to measure the level of economic damage in terms of real agricultural output, agricultural prices, and agricultural employment. As expected, a slow-moving Ganoderma boninense can devastate the oil palms in Malaysia by 2040 with a loss of 860,610 ha of mature oil palms that result in significant losses of real agricultural output and employment while inducing higher agricultural prices. Furthermore, BSR leads to further deforestation as landowners replace the BSR infected land by clearing rainforest. At last, paying an annual treatment cost to maintain healthy oil palms lead to a partial recovery from the economic damage of BSR. Although real output, agricultural prices, and agricultural employment improve while deforestation slows, the economic measures do not return to their baseline levels with an absence of BSR.

中文翻译：

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估计马来西亚油棕基部腐烂的经济损失和处理成本

摘要 油棕是一种重要的农作物，对马来西亚的经济和社会发展做出了重大贡献。然而，诸如基部茎腐病 (BSR) 之类的病原体会对油棕构成重大威胁，从而导致重大经济损失。受此发展的推动，我们利用马来西亚农业的部分均衡模型来衡量实际农业产量、农业价格和农业就业方面的经济损失水平。正如预期的那样，到 2040 年，缓慢移动的灵芝可能会摧毁马来西亚的油棕，损失 860,610 公顷的成熟油棕，导致实际农业产量和就业的重大损失，同时导致农产品价格上涨。此外，由于土地所有者通过清除雨林来取代受 BSR 感染的土地，BSR 会导致进一步的森林砍伐。最后，支付每年的处理费用来维持健康的油棕可以从 BSR 的经济损失中部分恢复。尽管实际产出、农产品价格和农业就业有所改善，同时森林砍伐速度放缓，但在缺乏 BSR 的情况下，经济指标不会恢复到基线水平。