Demonstrating adequate safety for exceptional designs and new design applications requires an explicit evaluation of the safety level, considering the uncertainties associated with the design parameters. The recently published PD 7974-7:2019 provides five routes to demonstrate adequate safety through probabilistic methods but does not include worked examples. The case study in this paper presents three state-of-the-art approaches for demonstrating achievement of an absolute safety target (acceptance concept “AC3” in PD 7974-7:2019) for a concrete column in an office building with stringent reliability requirements, specified on the level of individual members and with respect to a standardized heating regime. The case study shows how fragility curves listed by, for example, industry organizations can support probabilistic approaches and a more comprehensive understanding of design performance.

中文翻译：

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使用概率方法证明暴露于火的混凝土柱的足够安全性

考虑到与设计参数相关的不确定性，为特殊设计和新设计应用证明足够的安全性需要对安全级别进行明确评估。最近发布的 PD 7974-7:2019 提供了五种途径来通过概率方法证明足够的安全性，但不包括工作示例。本文中的案例研究介绍了三种最先进的方法，用于证明具有严格可靠性要求的办公楼混凝土柱达到绝对安全目标（PD 7974-7:2019 中的验收概念“AC3”） ，在个人成员的水平和标准化的加热制度方面指定。案例研究显示了脆性曲线如何列出，例如，