AIM: Many species face large‐scale range contractions and predicted distributional shifts in response to climate change, shifting forest characteristics and anthropogenic disturbances. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and were recently recommended for delisting. Predicted climate‐driven losses in habitat quality and quantity may negatively affect the north‐eastern Minnesota lynx population, one of the six remaining resident populations in the contiguous United States. We develop a large‐scale monitoring protocol and dynamic occupancy modelling framework to identify multi‐year core‐use areas and track spatiotemporal occurrence at the southern periphery of the species range. LOCATION: North‐eastern Minnesota lynx geographic unit, Superior National Forest and designated critical habitat, Minnesota, USA. METHODS: Spatially and temporally replicated snow track surveys were used to collect lynx detection/non‐detection data across five winters (2014–15 to 2018–19) covering >17,000 km within the 22,100 km² study area. We used a dynamic occupancy model to evaluate lynx occupancy, persistence, colonization and habitat covariates affecting these processes. RESULTS: Lynx occupancy probabilities displayed high spatial and temporal variability, with grid cell‐specific probabilities ranging from 0.0 in periphery regions to consistently near 1.0 in multi‐year core‐use areas, indicating low turnover rates in those areas. Lynx colonization and persistence increased in areas with more evergreen forest and greater average snowfall, while forest characteristics (3–5 and 10–30 m vegetation density) had mixed relationships with occupancy dynamics. We identified 55 grid cells classified as multi‐year core‐use areas across relatively contiguous regions of high average snowfall and per cent conifer forest. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates a landscape‐scale multi‐year monitoring programme assessing the effects of habitat characteristics and anthropogenic factors on species distributional changes and landscape‐level occupancy dynamics. Our framework incorporating landscape‐scale resource selection, core‐use area concepts and dynamic occupancy models provides a flexible approach to identify population‐level mechanisms driving species persistence and key areas for conservation protection.

中文翻译：

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量化物种范围边界的时空占用动态和多年核心使用区域

目标：许多物种面临大规模的范围收缩和预测的分布变化，以应对气候变化、森林特征变化和人为干扰。加拿大猞猁（Lynx canadensis）被美国濒危物种法列为受威胁物种，最近被建议除名。预计气候驱动的栖息地质量和数量损失可能会对明尼苏达州东北部猞猁种群产生负面影响，该种群是美国本土仅存的六个常住种群之一。我们开发了大规模监测协议和动态占用建模框架，以识别多年核心使用区域并跟踪物种范围南缘的时空发生情况。位置：明尼苏达州东北部猞猁地理单位、高级国家森林和指定的重要栖息地，美国明尼苏达州。方法：使用空间和时间复制的雪迹调查来收集 5 个冬季（2014-15 至 2018-19）覆盖 22,100 平方公里研究区域内超过 17,000 公里的猞猁探测/未探测数据。我们使用动态占用模型来评估影响这些过程的 lynx 占用、持久性、殖民化和栖息地协变量。结果：Lynx 入住概率显示出高时空变异性，网格单元特定概率范围从外围区域的 0.0 到多年核心使用区域的始终接近 1.0，表明这些区域的周转率较低。在常绿森林较多和平均降雪量较大的地区，猞猁的定植和持久性增加，而森林特征（3-5 和 10-30 m 植被密度）与占用动态存在混合关系。我们确定了 55 个网格单元，这些网格单元在平均降雪量高和针叶林百分比相对连续的区域内被归类为多年核心使用区域。主要结论：我们的研究展示了一个景观尺度的多年监测计划，该计划评估栖息地特征和人为因素对物种分布变化和景观水平占用动态的影响。我们的框架结合了景观尺度资源选择、核心使用区概念和动态占用模型，提供了一种灵活的方法来确定驱动物种持久性的人口水平机制和保护保护的关键区域。我们的研究展示了一个景观尺度的多年监测计划，该计划评估栖息地特征和人为因素对物种分布变化和景观水平占用动态的影响。我们的框架结合了景观尺度资源选择、核心使用区域概念和动态占用模型，提供了一种灵活的方法来确定驱动物种持久性的人口水平机制和保护保护的关键区域。我们的研究展示了一个景观尺度的多年监测计划，该计划评估栖息地特征和人为因素对物种分布变化和景观水平占用动态的影响。我们的框架结合了景观尺度资源选择、核心使用区域概念和动态占用模型，提供了一种灵活的方法来确定驱动物种持久性的人口水平机制和保护保护的关键区域。