Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

与全球气候变化相关的海洋变暖使海洋生态系统易受生物入侵。在这里，我们使用物种分布模型来预测八种侵入性海生动物在当前和未来气候情景下的栖息地适宜性。到海岸的距离和最高海面温度被认为是影响物种分布的最重要变量。结果表明，八位海鞘对未来的气候变化可能有不同的反应。令人震惊的是，目前的殖民地面积比预计的要小得多，这表明海鞘可能会扩大其侵袭范围。美洲，欧洲和西太平洋等地区极有可能遭受新的入侵。相反，非洲沿岸（不包括地中海沿岸）不容易遭受新的入侵，这可能是由于那里的海面温度高。