Abstract In recent years, the volume of studies in the fields of transport and urban planning seeking to identify environmental determinants or correlates of cycling has expanded dramatically. This viewpoint wishes to put forward a provocative argument: namely, that while further research in this area might refine our theoretical understanding of certain issues, it is unlikely to deliver any fundamentally new policy-relevant insights as to what measures need to be taken in order to increase urban cycling rates. At present, the difficulties faced by the vast majority of cities across the world in encouraging cycling are not derived from a lack of theoretical knowledge, but are fundamentally practical and political in nature. From a practical perspective, I argue that we already know enough about what needs to be done in order to encourage cycling in the vast majority of urban contexts. The problem with the seemingly endless proliferation of research on the relationship between cycling and environmental characteristics, I suggest, is that it risks giving the impression that there is some fundamental unresolved uncertainty about what is needed to make a city more cycling-friendly, when this is simply not the case. Instead of focusing on cycling itself, I suggest that exploring the phenomenon of traffic evaporation may be a more fruitful way for researchers to advance the cause of urban cycling.

中文翻译：

---

骑自行车的环境决定因素：只见树木不见森林？

摘要 近年来，在交通和城市规划领域寻求确定环境决定因素或自行车相关因素的研究数量急剧增加。这种观点希望提出一个具有挑衅性的论点：即，虽然该领域的进一步研究可能会完善我们对某些问题的理论理解，但不太可能就需要采取哪些措施来提供任何与政策相关的根本性新见解。提高城市骑行率。目前，全球绝大多数城市在鼓励骑自行车方面面临的困难并非源于缺乏理论知识，而从根本上是实践性和政治性的。从实用的角度来说，我认为，为了在绝大多数城市环境中鼓励骑自行车，我们已经足够了解需要做什么。我认为，关于自行车与环境特征之间关系的研究似乎无休止地扩散，问题在于它有可能给人一种印象，即在使城市对自行车更友好需要什么方面存在一些根本未解决的不确定性，当这根本不是这样。与其关注自行车本身，我建议探索交通蒸发现象可能是研究人员推进城市自行车事业的更富有成效的方式。是因为它可能给人一种印象，即对于使城市更适合骑自行车的需要什么，存在一些根本性的未解决的不确定性，而事实并非如此。与其关注自行车本身，我建议探索交通蒸发现象可能是研究人员推进城市自行车事业的更富有成效的方式。是因为它可能给人一种印象，即对于使城市更适合骑自行车的需要什么，存在一些根本性的未解决的不确定性，而事实并非如此。与其关注自行车本身，我建议探索交通蒸发现象可能是研究人员推进城市自行车事业的更富有成效的方式。