Bighead carp H. nobilis and silver carp Hypothalmichthys molitrix (collectively bigheaded carps, BHC) are invasive planktivorous fishes that threaten to enter the Laurentian Great Lakes and disrupt food webs. To assess the likelihood of BHC establishment and their likely effects on the food web of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, we developed a multi-species individual-based bioenergetics model that tracks individual bighead and silver carp, four key fish species, and seven prey biomass groups over 50 years. The model tracks the daily consumption, mortality and growth of all individuals and the biomass dynamics of interacting prey pools. We ran simulation scenarios to determine the likelihood of BHC establishment under initial introductions from 5 to 1 million yearling and older individuals, and assuming variable age-0 carp survival rates (high, intermediate, and low). We bounded the survival of age-0 BHC as recruitment continues to be one of the biggest unknowns. We also simulated the potential effects of an established population of 1 million bighead carp or silver carp assuming variation in age-0 survival. Results indicated that as few as 10 BHC could establish a population assuming high or intermediate age-0 survival, but at least 100,000 individuals were needed to establish a population assuming low age-0 survival. BHC had negative effects on plankton and planktivorous fish biomass, which increased with BHC density. However, piscivorous walleye Sander vitreus appeared to benefit from BHC establishment. The potential for BHC to establish and affect ecologically and economically important fish species in Saginaw Bay is a cause for concern.

鳙鱼^ h。贵族和silver鱼Hypothalmichthys molitrix（俗称big鱼，BHC）是入侵性浮游鱼类，有可能进入劳伦山脉五大湖并破坏食物网。为了评估BHC建立的可能性及其对休伦湖萨吉诺湾食物网的可能影响，我们开发了一种基于个体的多物种生物能学模型，该模型可以跟踪individual鱼和silver鱼，四种主要鱼类和七种捕食生物量团体超过50年。该模型跟踪所有个体的日消耗量，死亡率和增长以及相互作用的猎物池的生物量动态。我们运行模拟方案来确定从5到1百万岁的一岁以上成年人的首次引进下建立BHC的可能性，并假设0岁鲤鱼存活率可变（高，中和低）。由于招募仍然是最大的未知数之一，我们限制了0岁BHC的生存。我们还模拟了假设0岁生存率变化的100万big鱼或or鱼已建立种群的潜在影响。结果表明，只有低至10个BHC才能建立一个假定高或中等0岁生存率的人群，但至少需要100,000个人才能建立假定0岁低生存率的人群。BHC对浮游生物和浮游鱼类生物量具有负面影响，并随BHC密度增加而增加。然而，食肉性角膜白斑 结果表明，只有低至10个BHC才能建立一个假定高或中等0岁生存率的人群，但至少需要100,000个人才能建立假定0岁低生存率的人群。BHC对浮游生物和浮游鱼类生物量具有负面影响，并随BHC密度增加而增加。然而，食肉性角膜白斑 结果表明，只有低至10个BHC才能建立一个假定高或中等0岁生存率的人群，但至少需要100,000个人才能建立假定0岁低生存率的人群。BHC对浮游生物和浮游鱼类生物量具有负面影响，并随BHC密度增加而增加。然而，食肉性角膜白斑桑德玻璃体似乎受益于BHC的建立。BHC在萨吉诺湾建立和影响具有重要生态和经济意义的鱼类的潜力令人担忧。