In cities around the world, housing demand is increasing rapidly. Since housing supply is inelastic, house prices are rising as well, which causes affordability problems. Although there is consensus about the need to raise production, there is debate about its location: within the existing city, on underused or derelict buildings and sites, or on greenfield land outside existing city boundaries? The question we address is how researchers on the science–policy interface can support these debates and facilitate evidence-based decision-making. We address two major problems while doing this: (1) the complexity of the object at hand, that is, of the development of urban systems and (2) the politicised nature of science-for-policy. The contribution of this paper is that it links complexity theory to the literature about science-for-policy, two usually unconnected literatures. An additional contribution is that it shows how the role of the scientist as ‘honest broker’, as developed by Roger Pielke, can be operationalised and applied to existing policy debates. We do that for the Dutch debate about housing development in existing urban areas.

中文翻译：

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探索现有城市未来住宅开发的可行性

在世界各地的城市，住房需求正在迅速增长。由于住房供应缺乏弹性，房价也在上涨，从而导致负担能力问题。尽管对提高产量的必要性达成了共识，但对其位置存在争议：在现有城市内，在未充分利用或废弃的建筑物和场地上，还是在现有城市边界之外的绿地？我们要解决的问题是，科学政策界面的研究人员如何支持这些辩论并促进基于证据的决策。我们在这样做时解决了两个主要问题：（1）手头对象的复杂性，即城市系统的发展；（2）科学换政策的政治化性质。本文的贡献在于它将复杂性理论与有关科学换政策的文献联系起来，两篇通常互不相关的文献。另一个贡献是，它展示了科学家作为“诚实的经纪人”的角色，如 Roger Pielke 所发展的，可以如何运作并应用于现有的政策辩论。我们这样做是为了荷兰关于现有城市地区住房开发的辩论。