Abstract Global warming may increase the danger of local extinction for plant species with low tolerance to high temperatures. Tillandsia recurvata is a bromeliad epiphyte native to semiarid ecosystems of America. In North-Central Mexico, Prosopis laevigata (mesquite) is the main phorophyte of T. recurvata. Climate change models indicate that temperature will rise between 1 and 2 °C by the end of 2030, and this could increase vulnerability of T. recurvata populations. This study aims to experimentally determine the effects of warming on the survival and growth of T. recurvata seedlings, introducing a new design of chambers to simulate warming for epiphytes in the field. Warming chambers were built with transparent acrylic sheets and installed on branches of mesquites on December 2016 and T. recurvata seedlings were sowed in and outside of them. Survival was assessed every 14 days until November 2018 and seedling length was measured at the beginning and at the end of the experiment. After two years, seedling survival was 4.16% within the warming chambers and 42.85% outside, leaf length growth was 0.004 mm/day within warming chambers and 0.009 mm/day in controls. In a potential warming scenario, T. recurvata populations could decrease because of low seedling growth and seedling survival.

中文翻译：

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人工增温对铁兰幼苗存活和生长的影响：一项为期两年的试验

摘要 全球变暖可能会增加对高温耐受性低的植物物种局部灭绝的危险。Tillandsia recurvata 是一种原产于美洲半干旱生态系统的凤梨附生植物。在墨西哥中北部，Prosopis laevigata (mesquite) 是 T. recurvata 的主要植物。气候变化模型表明，到 2030 年底，温度将上升 1 至 2 °C，这可能会增加 T. recurvata 种群的脆弱性。本研究旨在通过实验确定变暖对 T. recurvata 幼苗存活和生长的影响，引入了一种新的室设计来模拟田间附生植物的变暖。2016 年 12 月，用透明亚克力板建造了暖房，并安装在豆科植物的树枝上，并在其内外播种了 T. recurvata 幼苗。直到 2018 年 11 月，每 14 天评估一次存活率，并在实验开始和结束时测量幼苗长度。两年后，暖房内幼苗成活率为 4.16%，室外为 42.85%，暖房内叶长增长 0.004 毫米/天，对照组增长 0.009 毫米/天。在潜在的变暖情景中，由于幼苗生长和幼苗存活率低，T. recurvata 种群可能会减少。